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NFL Betting Guide

Welcome to our NFL betting guide!  We have a some great handicappers on this site, but we also want to be able to help you grow your knowledge to become a more successful bettor yourself.  Some of you may be new to betting, or you just might want a refresher on what’s important in handicapping.  This isn’t a comprehensive guide, but it is a good place to get started.

Location, Location, Location: It’s pretty well known that home teams typically do well in the NFL, particularly home underdogs.  What we mean by location, however, isn’t just home vs away. We like to see just how far a team has traveled.  Late in the season when the weather starts getting colder, look for West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast.  Warmer weather teams typically don’t fair as well in the colder climates, plus they’ve had to make a trip across the entire country just to get there.

Check the Latest Odds: Lines are always changing and you need to be aware of those changes.  A half point can be the difference between winning and losing, so don’t get caught with a bad line just because you weren’t paying attention.  You should also be aware of your own betting patterns.  If you find that you are constantly betting on favorites, check yourself, as it is doubtful that it will be a winning strategy.

Avoid Huge Favorites: We’ve seen this shift a little in recent years, but typically double-digit favorites don’t have a good record of covering the spread.  As with anything, do your due diligence before placing a wager, but if you are looking for a quick way to narrow down your bets, avoiding double-digit favorites is a good place to start.

Weather: Check the forecast before betting a game.  How does the weather look?  Is it going to be windy?  How will that effect both teams’ ability to throw the ball?  These are all questions you should be asking.  Also note that wet conditions typically favor the offense as it is harder for defensive players to make adjustments with poor footing.

Forget Last Week: Unless there is a major injury the previous week’s results has very little to do with the upcoming game.  NFL teams are professional organizations and expecting similar results based on a good/bad score from the week before is a mistake.  Many times these scores are skewed by things like turnovers (which are harder to predict than most statistics).

Be Realistic: You aren’t going to win every wager you place, period.  You aren’t even going to hit 70% of your wagers.  Even the top NFL handicappers in the world hope to hit somewhere around 60% each year.  Anything above 65% for an entire season should be considered an anomaly.  If you have realistic expectations it will help you avoid being disappointed when all of your wagers don’t hit every week.