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NFL Handicapping & the Media

Written October 22, 2008 by Evan Altemus

The national sports media continues to amaze me after each NFL weekend. They are completely stunned when upsets occur, as well as when teams win in blowouts as small favorites. Let’s look at how the common sports bettor can benefit from the media’s stupidity when doing NFL betting.

The best example to prove this theory is the NFC South conference. This conference has a tremendous amount of parody, with every team currently having 3-5 wins. Several times this season we have seen teams in this conference win in blowouts, as well as get blown out. For example, a few weeks ago New Orleans blew out Oakland at home, and the national media proclaimed them as an instant Super Bowl contender because of their high scoring offense. The Saints were a huge public play the following week in their game against Carolina. The NFL lines never moved off Carolina favored by three, but close to 80% of the wagers was on New Orleans. However, the Panthers won in a blowout, with a final score of 30-7. The media said that Reggie Bush’s poor performance had a great deal to do with the loss, but Bush’s play had little to nothing to do with the final score. The Saints have shown a very strong home/road dichotomy this season, playing very well at home but struggling on the road. They were also over confident heading into the game because of their blowout win the previous week. In addition, the Panthers defense matched up very well against the Saints. The media also couldn’t understand how Carolina, which was coming off of a blowout loss at Tampa Bay, could beat New Orleans by such a wide margin. However, the Panthers were embarrassed against the Bucs, and they came out much more fired up and focused to avenge a poor showing. Because the media, including former NFL players, said that New Orleans was going to win this game easily, the betting public bought into it and was all over the Saints. Look for situations that have two quality teams playing each other where one team is much more desperate for a win, especially if the media loves the team coming off of a good performance. There is another situation that the media can benefit the savvy sports bettor.

A few weeks ago, Cleveland faced New York in a Monday night game, and they entered the game with a 1-3 record. Meanwhile, the media had finally begun praising New York, which came into the game undefeated. All of the experts on television said there was no way that the Browns could keep this game close. However, Cleveland had the best possible situation for them. They were coming off of a bye week, several starters came back from injury, and they had a strong home field advantage. In addition, the Browns were able to exploit the very weak Giants secondary with their speedy receivers. The national sports media was stunned when Cleveland won in a blowout, as they couldn’t comprehend how the game didn’t follow previous trends. Use this example and look for situations where large underdogs have good match-ups or situations over their favored opponents, especially as underdogs of more than a touchdown.

The national media is routinely wrong when it comes to making NFL picks on the outcome of games. The experienced bettor can pick out situations where these so-called experts are all over the wrong team. Using this theory can lead to profitable situations throughout the NFL season.