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NFL Playoffs: Bad Beats

Written January 14, 2009 by Evan Altemus

nfl-playoffs-bad-beats-011909 The hardest part of NFL betting is dealing with losses, especially when they are right side losers. That was the case on Saturday with my NFL picks, as I ended the day with a 1-2 outcome, despite having the right plays on both games. Let’s take a look at how my Saturday NFL selections turned out.

My first selection of the day was the Tennessee Titans at -3. My basic thinking was that Baltimore looked much better than they really are the previous week against an over-rated Miami Dolphin team. In addition, Tennessee had played excellent in situations where the public doubted them, and they got their two best defensive players back from injury. I also thought that the Ravens would come in over confident because of their blowout win the previous week. My selection seemed to be on its way for a win, as the Titans struck first with a relatively easy touchdown drive. They were moving the ball down the field, while Baltimore struggled offensively. However, the Ravens were able to take advantage of a blown coverage and tied the game with a 48 yard touchdown pass in the 1st quarter. Tennessee continued to have success moving the ball, but they proceeded to turn the ball over three times, including twice deep in Baltimore territory. They had a 180 total yard advantage, and Kerry Collins threw for 280 yards. Even with their mistakes, the Titans probably would have won the game if Chris Johnson played in the 2nd half. Needless to say, the outcome was very frustrating, as my selection was a right side loser.

Bet on this week’s NFL Playoff Games

Saturday’s second game featured an interesting match-up between Arizona and Carolina. Almost every professional handicapper selected the Panthers, but I felt that the Cardinals were the right side. Too much was being made of Arizona’s poor road performances this season, as they were blown out because of a complete lack of motivation, not because of a lack of skill set or capability. In addition, they had already shown the ability to play with Carolina on the road. However, I also thought that the game would feature back and forth scoring, with each team matching the other touchdown for touchdown. As a result, my Saturday card included Arizona +10 and OVER 48.5 points. Both selections seemed on their way to being easy winners, but Jake Delhomme could not stop turning the ball over in Arizona territory. The Cardinals, having a double digit lead in the 4th quarter, just wanted to run the ball and use clock. Consequently, Arizona ended up winning the game 33-13 for 46 combined points. The outcome was disappointing considering that I just needed 15 points in the 2nd half for my total selection to win.

One of the biggest keys to long term sports wagering success is to not chase bad beat losses like the two listed above. These kinds of devastating outcomes can be hard to deal with, but they are just a part of the process. In the end, wrong side winners and right side losers balance each other out anyway. In fact, I would much rather have several more right side losers than wrong side winners, as it means that my process is correct, which will lead to consistent profits long-term.

Beat the NFL odds this week with NFL expert picks from our top-ranked football handicappers.

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