2012 NFL Win Totals
It might seem a little early to start thinking about regular season NFL win totals, but sportsbooks have already posted their odds for the season, so now is as good a time as any to take a look at where the value is. There will undoubtedly be more free agent signings and trades before the season gets under way, but for now we’ll give our predictions on a few teams that jump out based on the current rosters and schedules.
NFL Regular Season Wins – Best OVER Bets
Kansas City Chiefs OVER 8 Wins - The Chiefs finished up the 2011 season at 7-9, despite suffering huge injuries to safety Eric Berry, running back Jamaal Charles, quarterback Matt Cassel, and tight end Tony Moeaki. Even with Peyton Manning joining the AFC West this offseason, the Chiefs are primed for a rebound year. Just two years ago this team won the division with a 10-6 record. Kansas City has made a huge upgrade on the offensive line with the addition of Eric Winston, added in running back Peyton Hillis and finally drafted a nose tackle, Dontari Poe, for their 3-4 defense.
Atlanta Falcons OVER 9 Wins - The Atlanta Falcons worst finish since the team drafted Matt Ryan in 2008 is 9-7. With the New Orleans Saints looking like they are going to be down a notch from last season, the NFC South is there for the Falcons to take. The two areas the Falcons needed to address were the offensive line and the secondary. They drafted Wisconsin center/guard Peter Konz and traded for cornerback Asante Samuel.
New York Jets OVER 8.5 Wins – The Jets went out and traded for quarterback Tim Tebow this offseason to try and bring some life to a team that finished just 8-8 last season. I think he will do just that. I expect Tebow to take over the starting job from Mark Sanchez and get the Jets back to being a run-first team that relies on their defense to win games. New York went out and drafted one of the premier rookie defensive linemen in North Carolina’s Quinton Coples, who I think is a perfect fit for Rex Ryan’s defense. The Jets should easily be able to get to 9 wins this year.
NFL Regular Season Wins – Best UNDER Bets
Minnesota Vikings UNDER 6 Wins – The Vikings were forced to start rookie quarterback Christian Ponder most of last season, and it ended up resulting in a 3=13 season. Minnesota took a big step in the right direction by drafting USC left tackle Matt Kahil, but I don’t think it will result in a huge jump in the win column. It’s going to be hard enough for this team to win a single division game. You also have to take into consideration the injury to Adrian Peterson, who suffered a torn ACL and MCL late last season.
Cleveland Browns UNDER 5.5 Wins – The Browns went out and drafted Alabama running back Trent Richardson. While I think Richardson will be a great NFL player, his impact won’t truly be felt until this team gets some weapons at wide receiver. Opposing defenses are going to load the box and force Colt McCoy to beat them with his arm. Cleveland also has a very difficult schedule for a team that finished last inside their division. Not only do they have to face the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals twice, but they also have to play the NFC East and a much-improved AFC West.
Miami Dolphins UNDER 7.5 Wins – In a division that features the New England Patriots, New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, I have a hard time seeing where the Dolphins will get to 8 wins this year. They traded away their top receiving threat in Brandon Marshall, and are putting all their chips in on rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Miami does benefit from playing the AFC South and NFC West, but this team is going to get worse before it gets better. If the Dolphins get to 7 wins they had a pretty amazing season.
NFL Regular Season Wins – Full List
|ARIZONA CARDINALS||DALLAS COWBOYS||MIAMI DOLPHINS||PITTSBURGH STEELERS|
|Over 7 (-110)||Over 8.5 (-125)||Over 7.5 (-110)||Over 10 (-125)|
|Under 7 (-120)||Under 8.5 (-105)||Under 7.5 (-120)||Under 10 (-105)|
|ATLANTA FALCONS||DENVER BRONCOS||MINNESOTA VIKINGS||SAN DIEGO CHARGERS|
|Over 9 (+105)||Over 9.5 (-110)||Over 6 (Even)||Over 9 (-130)|
|Under 9 (-135)||Under 9.5 (-120)||Under 6 (-130)||Under 9 (Even)|
|BALTIMORE RAVENS||DETROIT LIONS||NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS||SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS|
|Over 10 (-110)||Over 9.5 (+105)||Over 12 (-120)||Over 10 (+105)|
|Under 10 (-120)||Under 9.5 (-135)||Under 12 (-110)||Under 10 (-135)|
|BUFFALO BILLS||GREEN BAY PACKERS||NEW ORLEANS SAINTS||SEATTLE SEAHAWKS|
|Over 7 (-110)||Over 12 (-125)||Over 10 (-125)||Over 7 (-110)|
|Under 7 (-120)||Under 12 (-105)||Under 10 (-105)||Under 7 (-120)|
|CAROLINA PANTHERS||HOUSTON TEXANS||NEW YORK GIANTS||ST. LOUIS RAMS|
|Over 7.5 (-115)||Over 10 (-140)||Over 9.5 (-110)||Over 6 (-120)|
|Under 7.5 (-115)||Under 10 (+110)||Under 9.5 (-120)||Under 6 (-110)|
|CHICAGO BEARS||INDIANAPOLIS COLTS||NEW YORK JETS||TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS|
|Over 8.5 (-135)||Over 5.5 (+105)||Over 8.5 (-115)||Over 6 (-110)|
|Under 8.5 (+105)||Under 5.5 (-135)||Under 8.5 (-115)||Under 6 (-120)|
|CINCINNATI BENGALS||JACKSONVILLE JAGAURS||OAKLAND RAIDERS||TENNESSEE TITANS|
|Over 7.5 (-130)||Over 5.5 (+105)||Over 7 (-110)||Over 7 (-130)|
|Under 7.5 (Even)||Under 5.5 (-135)||Under 7 (-120)||Under 7 (Even)|
|CLEVELAND BROWNS||KANSAS CITY CHIEFS||PHILADELPHIA EAGLES||WASHINGTON REDSKINS|
|Over 5.5 (Even)||Over 8 (-120)||Over 10 (-135)||Over 6.5 (Even)|
|Under 5.5 (-130)||Under 8 (-110)||Under 10 (+105)||Under 6.5 (-130)|