NIT Basketball Semifinals Picks: Baylor vs San Diego State
Written March 30, 2009 by Jordan Haimowitz
The Baylor Bears from the Big-12 conference will be a tough out for SD State. The Bears made a very impressive run in the conference tournament but fell a bit short to Missouri in the championship game. Baylor has had success recently because they have a bunch of players that can be their best on any given night. Right now I’d give the nod as the teams best to LaceDarius Dunn who dropped 19 points and collected 9 rebounds in their last victory at Auburn. The team captain and emotional leader is guard Curtis Jerrells who is averaging 17 points, 3 rebounds and 6 assists in the NIT. Their main presence inside is forward Kevin Rogers who had 15 points and 12 rebounds in the Auburn game as well as 16 points against Virginia Tech and 20 points verses Georgia Tech. He has become a big time problem for opponents. The Bears will most certainly have a tough task against a team in which many thought got snubbed of a NCAA tourney bid (including myself), that team is the San Diego State Aztecs. This team does not score at the pace Baylor does, but oh boy, they play some fierce defense. Looking at the NCAA basketball lines for this game, we have Baylor -1 against San Diego State with the total set for 136 points.
The San Diego State Aztecs from the Mountain West Conference are the best defensive team in the tournament. This team is very different to Baylor as they do have one guy who is the teams main man, that is senior forward Lorrenzo Wade who averages 14 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists per game. What makes Wade such a match up problem for teams is he versatile and built like a rock. Wade is 6′6 225lbs, he is able to post up smaller men and face up bigger foes. The Aztecs defeated Weber State in the first round, then went out to ambush a talented Kansas State team 70-52 and then capped off the trip to New York by scoring the most impressive win in this tournament to date over Patty Mills and St. Marys. While Lorrenzo Wade is the teams best, another major factor will be senior G/F Kyle Spain who averages 14 points and 5 rebounds per game. Both Spain and Wade are so successful because they are stronger then the person guarding them most of the time so they are able to take advantage of that down low. When teams switch to bigger men on them they face up and make them play defense on the perimeter. These are two very good players. A big factor in this game will be SD State’s defense.
Point Guard: Richie Williams vs Tweety Carter (EDGE-EVEN) This is a match up that won’t be talked about to often but one that will be felt on the court. These two guards both under six feet tall, are extremely energetic and physical. Carter is more physical while Williams is much quicker. Both have great court vision. Tweety is a better scorer while Williams has more athleticism. Watch out for these two tenacious guards on Tuesday. Both of their impacts should be felt.
Shooting Guard: Kyle Spain vs Curtis Jerrells (EDGE-Kyle Spain of SD State) This one may surprise a few. Curtis Jerrells is playing very good basketball, he has at times taken games over and is multi-talented. Kyle Spain is a player not many know about. As of Tuesday night, that will change. Spain is a shut down defender that also averages double digit points. Jerrells in four inches shorter and has very comparable athleticism to Spain. Look for SD State to gain an advantage here.
Small Forward: Lorrenzo Wade vs LaceDarius Dunn (EDGE-EVEN) This is as good of a show down as you’ll see. Wade a strong, physical and athletic player usually over powers his defenders as they tend to be weaker. Dunn will look to run him ragged. LaceDarius is a stone cold shooter who is playing better ball then he ever has. He is much faster then Wade in the open court and I do expect him to score more. Wow, what an exciting and intense match up this will be. DEAD EVEN.
Power Forward: Ryan Amoroso vs Kevin Rogers (EDGE-Kevin Rogers of Baylor) This is the games biggest miss match. Rogers has been a very tough defensive force. His issue this year has always been whether or not he will give 100% energy during every game. Rogers has sold me during this tournament, the way he has improved his game as the year got old is just tremendous. Amoroso is a 6′8 forward that can shoot three’s well. He also is a good rebounder. Amoroso’s two weaknesses are his defensive strength and speed. Both will hurt him here. Baylor gets this one, no doubt.
Center: Billy White vs Josh Lomers/Momodu Diene (EDGE-Billy White of San Diego State) This is where I believe the Aztecs will get their major edge to take this game. Josh Lomers is a 7′0 center for the Baylor Bears that is very weak. He is not productive of the offense or defensive end. Diene is a big man Baylor also plays who is below average. These two actually do not get much time as games go along because Baylor goes so small. Billy White may not give Baylor that luxury. White is so strong and gifted inside that he will get these two very rattled. Baylor will not be able to get many second chance points as White will be a massive presence. Look for Kevin Rogers to take on the challenge as well of guarding White.
Haimo’s Hot Notes: San Diego will win this game on the defensive end. While Baylor does score 75 points to SD State’s 68. The Bears give up 71 against while SD State gives up only 60. Defense wins champions. The Aztecs have a great defensive game. Look for them to prove why they should have gotten an NCAA bid. Spain and Wade will lead the way and White will put the finishing touches on this semi-final win. Take the Aztecs.
Betting Line: Baylor -1
Jordan’s pick: Take San Diego State +1
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8 Responses to “NIT Basketball Semifinals Picks: Baylor vs San Diego State”
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BAYLOR IS THE SUPERIOR TEAM AT THIS POINT. BAYLOR HAS HAD THE MORE IMPRESSIVE WINS IN THE NIT (ON THE ROAD) AND IN THEIR SEC TOURNAMENT RUN) ON A NEUTRAL COURT. I HAVE BECOME A BELIEVER. THIS IS EASILY THE PICK OF THE NIT TOURNAMENT. I HAVE BAYLOR WINNING THEN DEFEATING NOTRE DAME (MY FIGHTING IRISH). BAYLOR WILL WIN THE 2009 NIT!!!
WATCH & LEARN…
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wes.green Reply:
April 3rd, 2009 at 10:22 am
you were wrong.
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Aaron,
I understand your views. Baylor has certainly looked more like the team everybody expected to see this year. However, the match ups here do not work in their favor. One other aspect is Baylor has struggled this year against good defensive teams. Defense wins championships. I hope you don’t put to much on Baylor tonight. Best of luck though and thanks for the comment
Jordan
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AARON REDDICK Reply:
March 31st, 2009 at 12:04 pm
FOOL ME ONCE SHAME ON YOU – FOOL ME 3 TIMES – SHAME ON ME. I LEARNED MY LESSON. BAYLOR IS ON A MISSION. THIS IS TOO EASY…
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I dont see how you do not give the edge to Dunn over Wade. Dunn is one probably the best player for Baylor. He had 13 points against Auburn before getting hurt in the first ten minutes of the game. it was obvious watching the game that he was not 100% but still managed 19 points. i have watched him play a couple times and he is a 6′4 guard that really has never been shutdown unless you have someone face guarding him the entire game. Are you saing that Wade is going to be able to keep up with him all over the court because all he needs is a half second to get the shot up. and i have seen both players and you say that wade is stronger than people who guard him, but Dunn is not weaker than Wade, they are only equal in that point, in everythign else Dunn seems to be a lot better.
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Baylor would have defeated St. Mary’s HOME, AWAY or on a Nuetral Court. I was not overly impressed with San Diego State’s “CLOSE” victory or St. Mary’s ON THEIR HOME COURT!
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A SURE THING – BUT – A GUN TO MY HEAD – BAYLOR WILL DO SAN DIEGO “DIRTY” TONIGHT!!!
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A.R. YOU WERE WRONG.
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I PICKED BAYLOR OVER SAN DIEGO ST (IN THIS PIECE). UNLESS I HAVE MISSED SOMETHING – I WAS RIGHT. PLEASE STATE THE FACTS WHEN YOU COME AT ME!!!
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