North Carolina at Virginia Tech Line

Written by Steve Janus

The No. 8 Virginia Tech Hokies are set to host the North Carolina Tar Heels in a special Thursday night ACC showdown. The Hokies come in 8-1 overall and 5-1 in conference play after going on the road and beating Georgia Tech 37-26. The Tar Heels lost 0-13 at NC State in their last game, dropping them to 2-4 inside the ACC. Virginia Tech won 26-10 at North Carolina last season, but the road team has won each of the last three meetings, including a 20-17 Tar Heel win back in 2009.

Taking a look at the week 12 college football spreads. oddsmakers currently have Virginia Tech favored by 10.5-points over North Carolina.

North Carolina:

The Tar Heels looked like they were going to be one of the tougher teams to deal with in the ACC after opening the season 5-1, but since they are just 1-3 over their last four games, and are coming in off a horrible performance against NC State. North Carolina has a couple of impressive wins over Virginia (28-17) and Wake Forest (49-24), but both of those games were played at home. The Tar Heels are 0-3 on the road in ACC play, and it doesn’t seem likely that they will end that streak this week against the Hokies.

While the Tar Heels aren’t known for lighting up the scoreboard, their offensive performance against NC State was about as bad as it gets. North Carolina finished with just 165 yards of total offense. Starting quarterback Bryn Renner was forced to leave the game with a concussion, and leading rusher Giovani Bernard was held to just 47 yards on 18 attempts. Renner was sacked four times for a loss of 47 yards, and it’s unclear if he will be able to play against Virginia Tech. Backup Braden Hanson will start if Renner is unable to play.

It would be one thing for an average offense to struggle against a top of the line defense, but NC State is far from an elite defense. Even after holding the Tar Heels to nearly nothing offensively, the Wolf Pack are still allowing over 350 total yards a game.

Getting that offense back on track against Virginia Tech won’t be easy. The Hokies are 11th in the country, allowing just 302.5 ypg. The Hokies are 13th against the run (102 ypg) and 31st against the pass (200.5 ypg).

Virginia Tech:

The Hokies have now rolled off five straight wins since losing 3-23 at home to Clemson earlier this season, but they still have some work to do before they can lock in their spot in the ACC Championship Game. In state rival Virginia is just a game back at 4-2. The Hokies can secure the title with a win and a Virginia loss at Florida State, which makes this game extremely important for Virginia Tech.

In their last game against Georgia Tech, the Hokies jumped out to an early 21-10 lead, but the Yellow Jackets rallied to take a 26-21 lead with 4:29 left in the third quarter. However, the Hokies would score the final 16 points to bring home the win.

Logan Thomas made the most of his passing attempts against the Yellow Jackets. While Thomas attempted just 13 passes, he completed seven of them for 209 yards and three touchdowns. Thomas also added 70 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

Thomas got plenty of help from junior running back David Wilson, who carried it 23 times for 175 yards. Wilson has been the glue that has kept this offense on track. He has rushed for over a 100 yards in all but one game this season, and leads the nation with 1,360 yards. He has had at least one rush for 39 yards or more in each of his last four games, and you just never know when he is going to break through the defense.

It is going to be interesting to see what kind of game the star back has against a Tar Heels defense that is 18th in the country, holding opponents to just 108.3 ypg on the ground. It’s by far the best run defense the Hokies have faced in the ACC.

Betting Trends:

North Carolina is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Virginia Tech is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Steve Janus is the No. 3 college football handicapper in 2011, and is ready to help you turn a profit with his week 12 college football selections.

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