Northern Illinios at Bowling Green Line
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The Northern Illinois Huskies will attempt to win their fifth straight overall when they go on the road to face the Bowling Green Falcons in a special Tuesday night college football matchup. The Huskies improved to 6-3 overall and 4-1 in the MAC with a thrilling 63-60 win at Toledo last Tuesday, and are now the front-runners to win the West division. The Falcons return from their bye week looking to bounce back from a disappointing 15-27 loss at Kent State. Bowling Green is now just 4-5 and 2-3 inside the conference. The Huskies home team has won four straight in the series, but these two teams haven’t played since 2008.
Taking a look at the week 11 college football spreads, oddsmakers currently have Northern Illinois favored by 5.5-points over Bowling Green.
Northern Illinois:
After opening the season just 2-3 with a couple of tough losses at Kansas and Central Michigan, Northern Illinois is the team to beat in the MAC West after a huge win at Toledo. The win moved the Huskies into a tie with Toledo at 4-1 and a game ahead of Ball State in the West standings.
Last week’s game against Toledo was easily the biggest game to date for Northern Illinois. The thing you have to worry about here is a let down against Bowling Green. Not only are the Huskies coming off that emotional win over the Rockets, but they have a huge game against Ball State next week.
Offense hasn’t been a problem for the Huskies in 2011. Northern Illinois comes in averaging 41.2 ppg and just put up a season-high 63 points in their last game. Senior quarterback Chandler Harnish is coming off a monster performance against Toledo. Not only did he throw for 265 yards and six touchdowns, but he also led the team with 133 yards on the ground. Harnish has thrown for 1,962 yards with 18 touchdowns to just four interceptions and rushed for a team-high 871 yards and eight scores.
While Harnish is coming off a huge game throwing the football, the Huskies offense is centered around running the football. They are 9th in the country averaging 246.8 rushing yards a game. Jasmin Hopkins is the top back with 660 yards and 12 touchdowns, while Akeem Daniels and Jordan Lynch have combined for 448 yards and four touchdowns.
Northern Illinois will likely lean on the running game against Bowling Green, as the Falcons come in allowing 190.8 ypg on the ground while holding opposing teams to just 193.3 ypg through the air.
Bowling Green:
The Falcons have been a hard team to figure out in 2011. They have a couple of impressive wins at Miami (OH) and at home against Temple, but also have a couple of bad losses that leave you scratching your head. Just one week after stunning Temple 13-10, Bowling Green was upset by a Kent State team that was just 1-6 with their only win coming against South Alabama.
In their last game against Kent State the Falcons turned it over four times and really struggled to convert on third down. They actually outgained the Golden Flashes 445 to 319 in total yards, but were just 4 of 14 on third down conversions. The difference maker was a muffed punt return late in the third quarter that eventually led to a Kent State touchdown.
Sophomore Matt Schilz would throw a 52-yard touchdown pass on the Falcons next possession, but instead of leading 13-10 they were down 12-17 after failing to convert a 2-point conversion. Schilz would finish the game with 400 passing yards, but he also killed a couple of drives with two interceptions.
With a running game that has struggled to produce on a consistent basis, Schilz and the passing attack have been the major source of offense for the Falcons this season. The Falcons are 29th in the nation with an average of 268.4 passing yards a game, but are 86th in rushing.
The offense should have a much easier time moving the football against a Northern Illinois defense that is allowing 450.5 total yards a game. Look for the Falcons to have one of their best rushing performances of the season, as the Huskies are 98th against the run, giving up 202.8 ypg.
Betting Trends:
Northern Illinois is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games.
Bowling Green is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
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