Northern Illinois at Iowa State
Written by Matthew Martz - Google +
The Northern Illinois Huskies visit the Northern Illinois Huskies on Thursday, September 2 at 8:00 PM EST. This match up is sure to be a good one in Week 1 of the season, and the latest odds show Iowa State –4.5 over Northern Illinois with a total set of 51 points.
Northern Illinois is coming off of a 7-6 overall record in 2009, where they were 19th overall in rushing yards with 195 per game and averaged nearly 29 points per game. That running game will continue this season led by RB Chad Spann, a key contributor last year with over 1,000 yards and 19 TDs.
Receiver Landon Cox is one of the best in the conference, and one of the only starters with experience. He averaged 12 yards per carry and managed 4 TDs; expect him to play a bigger role in the offense this season. QB Chandler Harnish is a difference maker, but is a constant injury threat. He looks ready to go with backup DeMarcus Grady waiting in the wings.
That depth will allow them NIU to field a consistent offense and play the hot hand. The Huskies led the conference by allowing just over 330 yards per game. While the talent is there for a repeat, the starters are less experienced. Sean Progar will lead the line, while tackles Brian Lawson and D.J. Pirkle provide the athleticism. Expect the defense to repeat its level of performance.
Meanwhile, Iowa state ranked 99th in total defense yards allowed and combined for the 103rd best scoring offense for a 7-6 record. Iowa State was one of the better rushing teams in the conference after averaging 180 yards per game.
Senior RB Alexander Robinson led that offense with 1200 yards and six TDs. He was hurt much of the season and will play a bigger role this year. Senior QB Austen Arnaud is the key to the offense. Last year he was picked too often, allowing 13 interceptions. If he can make smarter passes, the offense will grow by leaps and bounds.
The defense is a question and needs to improve. It returns only four starters and ranked 10th in the league in both run defense and pass defense. Despite those stats, the team kept the opposition out of the end zone. That kind of luck cannot continue.
Both teams have shown the ability to score, and are nearly equal in that regard. The difference maker is Iowa States lucky defense. If luck runs out, Iowa is in for a long game. The Cyclones rely heavily on the offense to keep possession and allow rest time for the defense. The problem is the interception, which Arnaud is known for. I expect him to be a little shy on passing because of his history. That extra time will put too much pressure on the weakened defense.
Matt’s Free Prediction: Northern Illinois +4.5 -If NIU can pound the ground, as it has shown it can do, the Iowa defense will tire and get sloppy. As those holes open up, and Harnish will exploit the opportunity. Landon Cox will be the difference maker as NIU rushes and takes the lead early on. Iowa’s Arnaud is too haphazard in his attempts to really mount a comeback.
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