2011 Northern Illinois Football Predictions
Written by Patrick Webb
Northern Illinois is a program under transition, but one that is expected to contend for the MAC title in new head coach Dave Doeren’s first season. He has a solid offense with a very good quarterback and offensive line to build off of, but must replace nine starters on defense. The good news is that they face only two MAC teams that are expected to be contenders, plus get Western Michigan at home, as well as a confidence-building non-conference schedule. Those things should allow the defense time to adjust to Doeren’s style of play.
NIU returns eight starters from an offense that scored 38 points per game. They posted less than 28 points only once in conference play, a 21-point effort at Miami of Ohio.
Quarterback Chandler Harnish improved as a passer as the season went on and was very dangerous as a runner. RB Jasmin Hopkins will be asked to take over for the dangerous and departed Chad Spann, but has company with five players vying for touches. Hopkins averaged 9.6 yards per carry on his 38 rushes last season. Spann rushed for 22 TDs last season and 41 scores over the last two.
The Huskies have a talented trio of receivers returning from last season led by Willie Clark, who scored 7 TDs last year. Martel Moore and Nathan Palmer each had key moments last year and Palmer averaged 18.3 yards per catch on 29 receptions.
NIU returns a staggering 116 career starts along the offensive line that paved the way for 42 rushing TDs and over 3,000 rushing yards. This unit is deep, talented and headlined by four seniors. Scoring shouldn’t be an issue for the Huskies and they could be even more balanced with the absence of Spann and the emergence of Harnish at QB.
The Huskies defense is going to have to be completely re-tooled, but Doeren was Wisconsin’s defensive coordinator so it should be easier to overcome their losses. DE Sean Progar returns after an All-MAC selection and should be joined by experience at every spot on the defensive line. Ron Newcomb and Nabal Jefferson have seen time the last couple of seasons and should lead a rotation at tackle. End Joe Windsor earned time as a true freshman last season and should be better for it both mentally and physically.
All three linebackers are missing due to either graduation or off field issues. Jordan Delegal and Pat Schiller saw action last season at the outside spots and the Mike position is expected to be manned by sophomore Mike Hellams, who saw action in eight games last season.
The secondary loses six of their top eight from last season and only return one starter in Tommy Davis. Rashann Melvin saw action in all 14 games last season and should step into a starter spot easily. Doeren recruited the secondary hard this season and several freshman or unknown players will have to make an impact. Doeren routinely produced solid defenses at Wisconsin and had to replace talented players year after year. Given the schedule and Jerry’s Kill’s reputation for developing talent, I look for this unit to be strong by mid-season.
Junior College recruit Josh Gallington is expected to step into the place kicking role, but he has competition in sophomore Matt Sims. Punting chores are expected to be handled by Ryan Neir, who has not punted in a college game. Tommy Davis will man both returner spots and was solid in both roles last season. NIU has been very good at blocking punts and pulling off fakes and I expect this to continue given Wisconsin’s focus on special teams while Doeren was there.
Schedule Analysis: NIU hosts Army in their opener, then travels to face a down Kansas team. Wisconsin will meet the Huskies at Soldier Field in week 3. Northern Illinois closes out the non-conference schedule with Cal Poly. NIU opens MAC play at Central Michigan and then hosts Kent State and Western Michigan back-to-back weeks. Three road games versus Buffalo, Toledo, and Bowling Green will likely determine the Huskies’ chances of defending the West crown. They close the season with what should be lay ups at home against Ball Stare and Eastern Michigan.
Final Record Prediction: 10-2 Overall (7-1, 1st in the MAC West)
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