2011 Northwestern Football Predictions

Written by Patrick Webb

Northwestern enters 2011 coming off a disastrous end to its 2010 campaign. QB Dan Persa was lost for the entire season and the spring following an injury in the Iowa game (Achilles tear) and Northwestern really struggled in his absence. They lost 27-48 to Illinois, 23-70 to Wisconsin, and 38-45 to Texas Tech in the Ticket City bowl. Illinois and Wisconsin pounded the Wildcats with the run and without Persa the offense couldn’t move the ball and committed multiple turnovers. Coach Pat Fitzgerald has a defensive background and the Wildcats should be much improved on that side of the ball this season as they return 7 starters and 13 players with at least a season of experience.

The good news for Northwestern is that Persa was ahead of schedule on his rehab and should be close to 100% for the fall. Persa had a magical season last year taking over for Mike Kafka, who was a fourth round draft choice of the Philadelphia Eagles. Persa had an outstanding 15/4 TD/INT ratio, rushed for an additional 9 TDs and completed 73.5% of his passes. Persa may not be the ground threat that he was last season, but he should get more help from a trio of running backs and an offensive line that returns 137 starts along with 89% of their total yards from last season.

Northwestern toyed with a Pistol look to boost their running game this spring. Persa could be an ideal trigger-man for that sort of offense as he should still be incredibly mobile, and can present a true running threat as a QB. Northwestern’s traditional spread formations will still be in use and should help to improve a solid passing game into something bordering on explosive with the returns of top target Jeremy Ebert (62/ 953/ 8 TDs) and vets Drake Dunsmore, Demetrius Fields and Charles Brown. The Wildcats have solid depth at receiver and look for Rashad Lawrence to emerge this season as possibly their number two pass catcher.

Northwestern struggled to get consistent production out of their running backs last season as Mike Trumpy, Adonsi Smith and Jacob Schmidt combined for less than 1,000 yards and only 8 TDs. Trumpy is a nice blend of physicality and size, while Smith has the speed and burst to be a weapon in the open field. Schmidt is used in short yardage situations but could see his role diminish with a healthy Trumpy. Trumpy and Smith should be more productive as they enter their second season of action.

Northwestern returns a talented offensive line that underachieved at times last season. Center Ben Burkett is a three year starter as is Al Netter. Brian Mulroe, Patrick Ward, and Doug Bartels have each had at least 13 career starts and Neal Dieters boasts 7 starts and 20 games to his resume. Talented sophomore Brian Smith has excellent size and made a strong push for time last season. This unit needs to be a bit more physical as they averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last season while allowing 40 sacks. That sack number is a bit misleading, however, as Persa was mobile enough to keep plays alive and took some poor sacks as well as a few that were one or two yard losses while scrambling.

The Wildcats are better defensively than their numbers show as a couple of outlier games skewed their season stats. They return a ton of experience to this side of the ball although they lose defensive tackle Corbin Bryant, middle linebacker Nate Williams and outside linebacker Quentin Davie, and corner Justin Vaughn, they return 12 players who totaled at least 20 tackles last season, as well as 4 of their top 6 tacklers. This defense should feature a rugged defensive line, improved athleticism at linebacker and an excellent safety tandem. The Cat’s could start as many as 10 seniors on defense this season.

Vince Browne headlines the defensive line group and is looking to improve as a pass rusher. He has great size and instincts versus the run and has the quickness and hand strength to improve on last season’s 7 sacks and 6 QB Hurries. He is joined by returning starters Jack Dinardo at tackle and Kevin Watt at end. Watt was being pushed for his job in the spring by sophomore Tyler Scott and the other tackle spot will likely see a rotation of Brian Arnfelt (13 games last season, 6’5 290) and Niko Mafuli (33 games, 6’3 310). This unit should improve in both phases of the game. It will only help them to have so much depth to rotate players and keep them fresh throughout the season.

Although Northwestern is losing two experienced players at linebacker, they are adding speed to both spots. David Nwabuisi saw time at the middle linebacker spot last season and has great size and athleticism at 6’1 240. Ben Johnson has bounced between linebacker and safety throughout his career, but will begin his senior campaign at the strongside spot for the Wildcats. Johnson has seen the field a lot in specialty packages and should improve upon his 21 tackles last season. Bryce McNaul returns at weakside linebacker and should be counted on to help improve the rush defense. He has nice size and athleticism and can stay on the field for all three downs.

Northwestern has a strong and veteran secondary as they return three starters as well as 7 of their top 8 players from last season. Corner Jordan Mabin had 63 tackles and 14 pass breakups last season and is going to be a four year starter. Safeties Brian Peters and David Arnold have great size and speed and are bringing back a combined 149 tackles and 4 interceptions. Arnold could be pushed for time by Hunter Bates and Jared Carpenter who both have multiple starts under their belt. The other corner will likely be manned by Jeravan Matthews, but he could be pushed by Demetrius Dugar who saw a lot of action in nickel and dime packages last season. This unit could receive a boost from an improved pass rush and I expect their combined 7 interceptions last season to jump to at least 12 this season.

The Wildcats return Punter Brandon Williams and he is coming off a solid freshman season as he had 9 punts of 50 yards plus and only 4 touchbacks to 20 punts inside the 20 yard line. K Jeff Budzien will enter his third year on campus as the expected starter, but he never managed to beat out the inconsistent Stefan Demos in his first two seasons. Budzien boasts little game experience and is being pushed for the job by walk on Steve Flaherty. Northwestern should be explosive in both phases of the return game as Venric Mark returns. Mark averaged 26.2 yards per kick return, including a 94 yard TD scamper. He was also solid returning punts averaging 12.9 yards per punt return.

Schedule Analysis: Northwestern gets a test right away as they open the season at Boston College. BC closed the ’10 season out strong winning 5 straight games before losing by a TD to Nevada in their bowl game. They return a lot of skill talent and should boast a solid defense. Northwestern then faces FCS opponent Eastern Illinois followed by a trip to Army. The ‘Cats get a bye and then face a road trip to Illinois, whom they gave up 519 rushing yards last season. Illinois is replacing tailback Mikel LeShoure, who accumulated 330 of those rushing yards last season. They get Michigan at home, travel to Iowa and then grab Penn State at home at the mid-point of the Big 10 season. Northwestern has won 5 of 6 versus Iowa and the last three in Kinnick, and blew a 21-0 nothing lead last season before yielding 35 straight points to Penn State last season. Next Northwestern travels to Indiana and then to Nebraska. The Rice Owls visit Evanston to close out the ‘Cats’ non-conference season and the Wildcats host Minnesota and Michigan State to finish the season. If Northwestern can stop the run this is a manageable schedule as only Michigan and Michigan State boast proven top flight QBs.

Final Record Prediction: 10-2 Overall (7-1 Big 10 – 1st in Legends Division)

Big Ten Football Predictions by Team
Illinois Football Predictions	Indiana Football Predictions
Ohio State Football Predictions	Penn State Football Predictions
Purdue Football Predictions	Wisconsin Football Predictions
Iowa Football Predictions	Michigan Football Predictions
Michigan State Football Predictions	Minnesota Football Predictions
Nebraska Football Predictions	Northwestern Football Predictions

College Football Predictions
ACC Football Predictions	Big 12 Football Predictions
Conference USA Football Predictions	Independents Football Predictions
PAC 12 Football Predictions	SEC Football Predictions
Big East Football Predictions	Big Ten Football Predictions
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