Northwestern at Illinois Line
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The unbeaten No. 24 Illinois Fighting Illini will open up Big Ten play at home against the Northwestern Wildcats on Saturday. The Illini improved to 4-0 with a hard fought 23-20 win over Western Michigan, but it was not exactly the dominant performance that fans had expected to see. The Wildcats are 2-1 overall, but haven’t played since losing at Army 21-14 on Sept. 17. Northwestern has won six of the last eight meetings, but the two teams have split their last four games. Illinois won at Northwestern 48-27 a year ago.
Looking at the week 5 college football spreads, oddsmakers currently have the Fighting Illini favored by 7-points over the Wildcats with the total set at 50.5 points.
Northwestern Wildcats:
A lot of people considered Northwestern to be a sleeper in the Big Ten this season, and they could be getting a huge part of their offense back this week. Starting quarterback Dan Persa hasn’t been able to play a single game since tearing his Achilles late last season against Iowa. Persa is listed as probable and there is no question he will give this offense a spark if he is healthy. Persa threw for 2,581 yards with 15 touchdowns to just four interceptions and was second on the team with 519 yards and nine scores on the ground in 2010 (missed three games including bowl game).
Kain Colter has started the first three games in place of Persa. He completed 65% of his passes, but threw for just 390 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Colter did most of his damage on the ground, rushing for a team-best 237 yards and four touchdowns. Running backs Mike Trumpy and Adonis Smith have combined for just 227 yards and two scores, but they could see their production increase with defenses now having to pay more attention to the passing game.
One player that figures to see his numbers jump with the return of Persa is senior wide out Jeremy Eibert. So far Eibert has a team-best 10 catches for 162 yards and two touchdowns. Demetrius Fields and Rashard Lawrence are two other players that figure to be more involved in the offense.
Persa’s return appears to come at just the right time, as the Fighting Illini have really struggled against the pass. They allowed Alex Carder of Western Michigan to throw for 306 yards and two touchdowns last week, and are giving up an average of 230.8 passing yards a game. Running the ball on Illinois figures to be a challenge, as they are allowing just 56.6 yards per game on the ground.
Illinois Fighting Illini:
The Fighting Illini should be extremely comfortable playing at home, as this will be their fifth straight game at Memorial Stadium. Illinois had no trouble in their first two games against Arkansas State and South Dakota State, but have won by just a field goal in their last two games.
The offense is built to run the football, and so far the Fighting Illini are running the ball with authority. It isn’t just one player doing the damage, as four different players have already topped 200 yards on the ground. Troy Pollard leads the team with 260 yards on just 25 attempts. Jason Ford has carried it a team-high 62 times for 215 yards and four scores and Donovonn Young has chipped in 212 yards and three touchdowns.
The other 200-yard rusher is starting quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, who has 224 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Scheelhaase has also been very effective when he is asked to throw the football. He is completing 71.2% of his passes for 637 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. It isn’t a big secret who Scheelhaase is looking to throw the ball to when he drops back to pass, senior wide out A.J. Jenkins has 28 catches for 365 yards and two touchdowns. Darius Millines does have 10 catches for 174 yards, but no other receiver has more than five catches.
Illinois could have a field day running the football against the Wildcats, as they come in giving up 205.7 yards a game on the ground. That number is a bit inflated from the 381 yards Northwestern allowed against Army in their last game, but it still figures to be an area where the Illini have a lot of success.
Betting Trends:
Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog.
Illinois is 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Be sure to check out what Steve Janus has picked to win in week 5 of college football. The expert college football handicapper cashed in a 6-1 premium card in week 4!
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