Denver Nuggets Dallas Mavericks Game 1 Predictions
Written May 2, 2009 by Jason Lowry
The 2nd round of the Western Conference is set, and the first series to get underway will be the No.2 seeded Denver Nuggets taking on the No.6 seeded Dallas Mavericks this Sunday. The Nuggets put on a show in their opening round series with the Hornets, taking the series 4-1, one of the Nuggets wins included a 58 point dismantling of the Hornets in game 4. The Mavericks might not of dominated the Spurs in the same way, but they too took a 4-1 series win, as they made sure the short handed Spurs didn’t make it out of the first round. In fact neither team faced a healthy team in the first round, so I expect this series to much more competitive than some people might think. In the regular season the Nuggets took all four meetings between these two teams, but only one game was settled by more than 3 points. Both teams are undefeated on their home floors this postseason, so it will be the Mavericks job to steal one of the opening games at Denver and gain control of home court advantage. Here is a look at what I think each team needs to do to win game 1, plus my prediction on who comes out on top against the spread.
What the Mavericks have to do to win: Forget about the 4 losses in the regular season, the Mavericks are playing as good as basketball as they have all season right now, and a big reason for that is the play of Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard. Nowitzki is a tough matchup for any team, as few big man can shoot the ball like he can. Jose Barea has been a nice addition to the starting lineup, and gives the team another scoring option. The Mavericks will need a big series from reserve Jason Terry, as the Nuggets have a pretty deep bench that can score the basketball. The Mavericks will have to find an answer for Chauncey Billups, who torched the Mavs in the regular season for 31 points a game. It is also a much different offense they will be facing in round 2, as the Spurs were a much more slower paced team than the Nuggets, so it will be interesting to see if Dallas can continue to play well on the defensive side of things. Overall Nowitzki is the key to this series for the Mavericks, if he gets it going this team could really put a scare into the Nuggets. Bet the Mavericks +6 at Sportsbook.com.
What the Nuggets have to do to win: Its hard to imagine the Nuggets can play any better than they did in their first round matchup with the Hornets, as Billups and Carmelo Anthony were outstanding. Anthony averaged a team best 24 points a game in the first round, while Billups was unstoppable at times, averaging 22 points and 7 assists a game, but the most surprising stat was how well he shot the 3-ball, as Billups made 19 of 29 3-pointers (65.5%). The Nuggets also got strong performance inside from Kenyon Martin and Nene, and both of these guys will have to be strong in this series against the big men of Dallas. I think the key for the Nuggets is no let down in this series, and they have to be great at home again. They know they are the better team and the ones that should move on to likely play the Lakers in the Conference Finals, but they can’t look past a very good Dallas team. Bet the Nuggets -6 at Sportsbook.com.
My Prediction: Nuggets -6. As much as I like how Dallas is playing right now, I don’t think they have a shot at winning game 1. I think if Dallas is going to win a game at Denver it will be game 2. I look for Billups to put on a show in game 1, and there is no question he is the reason this Nuggets team has gone from mediocre to one of the bets teams in this league. I think the game will be pretty close throughout, but I look for the Nuggets to pull away at the end and win this one by 10 points or so.
Looking for some NBA betting advice this postseason? Check out our expert NBA picks and NBA odds at Betfirms.
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