2010 Oakland Athletics Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

GM Billy Beane’s plans for rebuilding the Oakland Athletics are not working, and in 2009 they finished their third consecutive season with a sub-.500 record. The A’s finished last in the AL West, going 75-87, and also had the lowest average attendance in the majors at 17,392. Until this team can move from the old Coliseum to the Silicon Valley area, the attendance numbers aren’t likely to improve, especially with the dreadful moves that Beane keeps making. Oakland lacks power in their line-up, and finished with the fewest homers in the league and were the only team from the AL to finish with a slugging percentage of less than .400. Their pitching staff is much less of a concern, with youngsters Andrew Bailey, Brad Zeigler and Brett Anderson to build around. Baseball lines are posted for futures, and the A’s projected win total is set at 79.5.

Pitching:

The A’s starting staff is filled with young guys who have loads of potential, and some are starting to live up to it. Brett Anderson is their No. 1 guy after going 11-11 in his rookie season with a 4.06 ERA. Trevor Cahill went 10-13 with a 4.63 ERA in his rookie year, and Vin Mazzarro went 4-9 with a 5.32 ERA in his rookie campaign. These three are at the head of the rotation, and after gaining valuable experience last season when thrown into the mix, they could be set up for solid sophomore seasons. The team signed Ben Sheets to try and lead this staff, and if he’s healthy, he could be a No. 1 guy after dominating the National League in year’s past. When Sheets has had at least 20 starts in his career dating back to 2001, he’s finished with double-digit wins every season. He owns a career 3.72 ERA. Dallas Braden was a pleasant surprise last year, going 8-9 with a 3.89 ERA. Justin Duchscherer spent last season recovering from right elbow surgery after becoming an All-Star in 2008, going 10-8 with a 2.54 ERA. A healthy return from Duchscherer could be just the lift this staff needs. The relievers are solid as Oakland’s bullpen finished with a 3.54 ERA last season, and when you compare that to the league average of 4.17, you can see where I’m coming from. Andrew Bailey won AL Rookie of the Year honors as their closer in ‘09, going 6-3 with a 1.84 ERA while recording 26 saves. Michael Wuertz was an innings-eater, and went 6-1 with a 2.63 ERA last season. Brad Ziegler followed up an incredible ‘08 campaign in which he registered a 1.06 ERA in nearly 60 innings pitched, to finish with a 3.07 ERA in ‘09 in 73 innings of work.

Hitting:

Oakland does have one of the best young catchers in the game in Kurt Suzuki, who hit .274 with 15 homers, 74 runs scored and 88 RBI’s last season. The infield gets a boost from 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff from San Diego, and 1B/3B/DH Jake Fox from the Cubs. Fox will likely platoon behind Kouzmanoff and 1B Daric Barton. Cliff Pennington gets his shot full-time at SS after hitting .279 in limited action last season with Oakland. Veteran Mark Ellis resumes his role at 2B. The outfield has the potential to be solid with Rajai Davis in left, Ryan Sweeney in right, and Coco Crisp in center, who came over from the Royals after an unproductive season in Kansas City. Crisp had season-ending shoulder surgery and needs to return healthy. Davis was the biggest star in Oakland last year, hitting .305 and stealing 41 bases. Sweeney has improved each of the past three seasons since his rookie year in ‘07, hitting .293 with 6 HR, 53 RBI’s and 68 runs scored in ‘09. Jack Cust will be the primary DH after hitting at least 25 HR’s in each of his first three seasons in Oakland.

Jack’s Prediction: 4th in the AL West and UNDER 79.5 Wins – This appears to be one of the safest over/under bets of any team in the league in my opinion. Oakland would have to win 81 games to win half of the games on their schedule, and I don’t see them coming close to accomplishing that feat. They have had three straight seasons finishing with 76 or less wins and a fourth straight looks like a sure thing. Their pitching staff has promise, but the line-up is simply one of the worst in the league. They were the only team from the AL to slug less than .400 last year, and they didn’t do much to add pop to the batting order in the offseason. They do have speed, and will have to manufacture their runs. But in the end, they just don’t have what it takes to keep up with the Angels, and then the Rangers and Mariners, who both continue to improve in the AL West.

Archived Season Previews:

2009
2008

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