Odds to Win 2012 NCAA Tournament
Written by Jack Jones - Google +
The selection committee has unveiled the field of 68 teams that will be playing in the NCAA Tournament. I’ll list each team’s odds on their chances of winning the Big Dance. I will also preview a few of the top contenders to take down the championship. At the bottom of the page is a list of each team and their prices. The favorite is Kentucky (9/4), followed by Ohio State (11/2), North Carolina (13/2) and Michigan State (17/2). A successful $100 wager on Kentucky would profit you $225.
The Favorites – These are the 1 and 2 seeds that I believe are showing the best value in the tournament.
North Carolina (13/2) – No. 1 seed North Carolina simply has a nice mix of talent across the board. They are arguably the strongest team in the field, yet they aren’t the favorite. Their interior play is very solid with Tyler Zeller (16.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.3 blocks) and John Henson (13.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.9 blocks). They also have one of the best forwards in the nation in Harrison Barnes (17.4 points, 5.2 rebounds), as well as one the best true point guards in the land in Kendall Marshall (7.8 points, 9.7 assists).
Missouri (10/1) – Second-seeded Missouri’s fast-paced style is going to make for a tough match-up for any team in the field. They run four guard sets and ware the opposition down by playing at a frenetic pace for 40 minutes. The Tigers have five players averaging double-digits in scoring, and they are 6th in the country in points per game (80.3). What’s most impressive about this team is that they play at a fast pace, yet they still take great shots. Missouri is 3rd in the land in field goal percentage (50.4).
The Sleepers – These are teams in the middle of the pack, anywhere from a 3 to a 8 seed, that I believe can make a serious run to the Final Four.
Louisville (35/1) – The fourth-seeded Cardinals are the poor man’s Missouri this year. They play a style that is tough for any team in the country to prepare for simply because they don’t see it very often. With little practice time in between games, it’s a huge advantage for head coach Rick Pitino and company. He likes to run a full-court press on defense, which takes the opposition out of rhythm offensively. The Cardinals were banged up for much of the year, but they finally got healthy down the stretch. As a result, Louisville is playing their best basketball of the season, having won the Big East Tournament coming in.
Vanderbilt (35/1) – The fifth-seeded Commodores had big expectations coming into the season with so much returning talent from a year ago. They faltered early, but really started to play up to their potential late in the year. This team is peaking at the right time. They just beat Kentucky to win the SEC Tournament, and now they know they’re capable of knocking off any team in the land. Guard John Jenkins (19.9 points, 47.8% FG) and forward Jeffery Taylor (16.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 49.9% FG) form one of the best duos in the country.
Wichita State (40/1) – The fifth-seeded Shockers are certainly capable of shocking the world after the season they put together. They finished 27-5 and won the Missouri Valley Conference regular season title. While they did bow out early in the MVC Tournament with a 1-point loss to Illinois State, that could just be the motivation they need to make a deep run in the big dance. Wichita State is 15th in the country in scoring (77.7) and 13th in field goal percentage (48.5). This is a very balanced team with six players averaging between 8.3 and 13.5 points, so the opposition can’t really zero in on one guy.
Cincinnati (75/1) – After getting into an ugly brawl with Xavier on December 10th, the Bearcats went on to win seven straight games. It was the spark they needed to turn things around and focus on playing basketball. This team has really rallied around one another, and they made it all the way to the Big East title game while knocking off Syracuse in the process. They get after it defensively, ranking 27th in the country in scoring defense (61.2). Cincinnati has very strong guard play with Sean Kilpatrick (14.4 points, 4.6 rebounds), Dion Dixon (13.1 points, 3.5 rebounds) and Cashmere Wright (10.9 points, 4.6 assists). They also have a dominant big man inside in center Yancy Gates (12.4 points, 9.2 rebounds).
Murray State (100/1) – Perhaps the most underrated team in the field, the sixth-seeded Racers had a tremendous season. Murray State went 30-1 this season to run away with the Ohio Valley Conference regular season and tournament titles. They had strong non-conference road wins over other NCAA Tournament teams in Memphis, Southern Miss and Western Kentucky. They also beat then-No. 16 St. Mary’s 65-51 at home on February 18th. This team is the real deal and still doesn’t get the love they deserve. Maybe a deep run in the big dance would finally earn Murray State some respect.
The Longshots – These are teams like VCU and Butler from a year ago who came out of nowhere to nearly win a National Championship. They are the 9 seeds and higher that I believe have the best chance to make a deep run.
NC State (100/1) – The 11th-seeded Wolfpack were certainly a bubble team heading into the ACC Tournament. They handled that pressure very well and managed to pick up a couple of nice wins over Boston College and Virginia to solidify their spot in the big dance. Maybe even more impressive was their 67-69 loss to North Carolina in the semifinals, which showed that NC State is capable of playing with any team in the country. They are in the same region as in-state rival UNC, so if they can fin a way to meet them again, I believe the Wolfpack will give the Tar Heels a run for their money.
Long Beach State (250/1) – What makes the 12th-seeded 49ers so intriguing to me is the schedule that they have faced this season. They played arguably the toughest non-conference schedule in the country while managing to hold their own in the process. Long Beach State has wins over then-No. 6 Pittsburgh on the road and then-No. 15 Xavier on a neutral court. They also have single-digit road losses to then-No. 13 Kansas and then-No. 6 North Carolina. Not to mention, they lost to San Diego State (in OT), Kansas State, Montana (by 2), and Louisville out of conference, all teams that will be playing in the NCAA Tournament. The 49ers went on to win 18 of their final 20 games to end the season. They are clearly battle-tested, and after that schedule, they won’t feel overmatched against any opponent they come across.
Odds to Win the 2012 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship
Kentucky (1) 9/4
Ohio State (2) 11/2
North Carolina (1) 13/2
Michigan State (1) 17/2
Missouri (2) 10/1
Kansas (2) 10/1
Syracuse (1) 10/1
Duke (2) 20/1
Marquette (3) 30/1
Florida State (3) 30/1
Baylor (3) 35/1
Wisconsin (4) 35/1
Louisville (4) 35/1
Vanderbilt (5) 35/1
Wichita State (5) 40/1
Georgetown (3) 40/1
New Mexico (5) 50/1
Indiana (4) 60/1
Florida (7) 65/1
Memphis (8) 65/1
Cincinnati (6) 75/1
Kansas State (8) 75/1
Connecticut (9) 75/1
Michigan (4) 80/1
Belmont (14) 100/1
Temple (5) 100/1
UNLV (6) 100/1
Murray State (6) 100/1
Notre Dame (7) 100/1
St. Mary’s (7) 125/1
Gonzaga (7) 125/1
West Virginia (10) 125/1
San Diego State (6) 150/1
St. Louis (9) 150/1
Alabama (9) 150/1
Creighton (8) 150/1
Texas (11) 100/1
Purdue (10) 100/1
NC State (11) 100/1
Iowa State (8) 200/1
Virginia (10) 200/1
VCU (12) 250/1
Harvard (12) 250/1
California (12) 250/1
Southern Miss (9) 250/1
Long Beach State (12) 250/1
Colorado State (11) 300/1
Colorado (11) 300/1
South Florida (12) 300/1
Montana (13) 300/1
New Mexico state (13) 300/1
Ohio (13) 300/1
Davidson (13) 300/1
BYU (14) 300/1
Iona (14) 300/1
St. Bonaventure (14) 300/1
South Dakota State (14) 300/1
Lehigh (15) 450/1
Norfolk State (15) 450/1
Detroit (15) 450/1
Mississippi Valley State (16) 500/1
Western Kentucky (16) 500/1
NC-Ashville (16) 500/1
Long Island (16) 500/1
Lamar (16) 500/1
Vermont (16) 500/1
Loyola Maryland (15) 500/1
Odds to Win the South Region
Kentucky (1) 5/7
Duke (2) 5/1
Baylor (3) 11/2
Wichita State (5) 8/1
Indiana (4) 12/1
UNLV (6) 25/1
Connecticut (9) 30/1
Notre Dame (7) 40/1
Iowa State (8) 60/1
Xavier (10) 60/1
VCU (12) 100/1
Colorado (11) 150/1
New Mexico State (13) 200/1
South Dakota State (14) 200/1
Lehigh (15) 200/1
Western Kentucky (16) 200/1
Mississippi Valley State (16) 225/1
Odds to Win the West Region
Michigan State (1) 11/5
Missouri (2) 9/4
Marquette (3) 13/2
Louisville (4) 13/2
New Mexico (5) 9/1
Florida (7) 14/1
Memphis (8) 14/1
Murray State (6) 25/1
St. Louis (9) 30/1
Virginia (10) 50/1
Long Beach State (12) 75/1
Davidson (13) 100/1
BYU (14) 100/1
Colorado State (11) 150/1
Iona (14) 150/1
Norfolk State (15) 200/1
Long Island (16) 200/1
Odds to Win the East Region
Ohio State (2) 8/5
Syracuse (1) 9/4
Vanderbilt (5) 9/1
Florida State (3) 10/1
Wisconsin (4) 10/1
Kansas State (8) 15/1
Cincinnati (6) 18/1
Gonzaga (7) 30/1
West Virginia (10) 30/1
Texas (11) 30/1
Southern Mississippi (9) 60/1
Harvard (12) 60/1
Montana (13) 100/1
St. Bonaventure (14) 150/1
Loyola Maryland (15) 200/1
NC-Ashville (16) 200/1
Odds to Win the Midwest Region
North Carolina (1) 8/5
Kansas (2) 2/1
Georgetown (3) 10/1
Michigan (4) 15/1
Temple (5) 18/1
Purdue (10) 18/1
Belmont (14) 18/1
NC State (11) 20/1
St. Mary’s (7) 25/1
San Diego State (6) 30/1
Creighton (8) 35/1
Alabama (9) 40/1
California (12) 50/1
South Florida (12) 100/1
Ohio (13) 100/1
Detroit (15) 150/1
Lamar (16) 200/1
Vermont (16) 225/1
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