Oklahoma at Baylor Line

Written by Steve Janus

The No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners will go on the road to take on the No. 22 Baylor Bears in a huge Big 12 matchup this Saturday. The Sooners improved to 8-1 overall and 5-1 inside the conference with a 41-25 win over Texas A&M the last time they took the field. Oklahoma comes in off a late bye week needing to win their final three games of the season to win the Big 12 Championship and keep their hopes of playing in the National Championship Game alive. The Bears rallied from a huge fourth quarter deficit to knock off Kansas 31-30 in overtime this past weekend, pushing their overall record to 6-3 and 3-3 in the Big 12. The Sooners had no trouble beating the Bears last season, winning 53-24 at Baylor for their 20th consecutive win in the series.

Taking a look at the week 12 college football lines, oddsmakers currently have Oklahoma favored by 15.5-points with the total set at 74.5 points.

Oklahoma:

If it wasn’t for the Sooners 38-41 loss at home to Texas Tech earlier this season, it would be hard to give Baylor any shot of winning this game. Oklahoma has done a nice job of rebounding with solid wins over two very good teams in Kansas State and Texas A&M, and have had plenty of time to prepare and make sure that another letdown doesn’t happen leading up to their huge game against Oklahoma State in the regular season finale.

In their last game against the Aggies, Oklahoma was actually outgained 527 to 404 in total yards, but a big reason for the difference was the fact that Texas A&M turned the ball over four times which led to a few easy scores. The win came at a cost for the Sooners, as they lost star wide out Ryan Broyles for the season to a knee injury. Broyles was easily leading the team with 83 receptions for 1,157 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Landry Jones finished the game with 255 passing yards and two touchdowns, but was just 18 of 38 passing. It was the first time this season the junior quarterback failed to complete at least 54% of his passes, and you have to wonder how much of an effect the loss of Broyles is going to have the rest of the way.

Without Broyles the Sooners could be forced to rely more on their running game, which rushed for 149 yards and three scores against a solid Texas A&M run defense. Roy Finch led the way with 99 yards and a touchdown, while Blake Bell made his first big impact of the season with 37 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries.

If Oklahoma chooses to run the ball more, Baylor is the defense they want to be facing. The Bears are 106th in the country, giving up 219.9 rushing yards a game. Jones should also be able to attack the Bears defense through the air, as they give up 238.3 passing yards on average.

Baylor:

If the Bears needed a confidence booster coming into this game, they definitely got it in their last win over Kansas. Baylor trailed 24-3 heading into the fourth quarter against the Jayhawks, but were able to tie it up at 24-24 and win the game in overtime thanks to a failed 2-point conversion by Kansas.

Junior quarterback Ryan Griffin III put this team on his back when they needed him the most. Griffin got the Bears going with a 47-yard touchdown and then followed that up with three touchdown passes, including the game winner to Tevin Reese in overtime. Griffin went 22 of 29 for 312 yards and three touchdowns and led the team with 103 yards and a score on the ground. Reese finished with six catches for 127 yards and two touchdowns, while Kendall Wright caught nine passes for 102 yards.

The Bears will have to get off to a much better start if they want to pull off the huge upset at home this week, as they aren’t going to be able to rally from 21 down against the Sooners 44th ranked defense (362.2 ypg). If Baylor is going to have success against Oklahoma, it will likely come with their passing game, as the Sooners allow just under 233 ypg through the air.

Betting Trends:

Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Baylor is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Steve Janus is the No. 3 college football handicapper in 2011, and is ready to help you turn a profit with his week 12 college football selections.

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