Elite 8 Predictions: Oklahoma vs North Carolina
Written March 29, 2009 by Jordan Haimowitz
The Sooners come into this game off of the tremendous beat down they laid on the Orange of Syracuse. A game in which I predicted not only the outcome, but how the pace would go. Oklahoma also defeated Michigan and Morgan State on their road to the Elite Eight. When you pull out the rosters of these two power houses, you’ll see they really match up well against each other. Both Johnson and Lawson are quick and can shoot. Warren and Ellington are both explosive scorers that can create for themselves. Green and Crocker are both knock down three point shooters and have great athleticism. The most publicized show down of the tourney, the one everybody and their brother is talking about, Tyler Hansbrough vs Blake Griffin. Taylor Griffin vs Deon Thompson may be an intriguing match up as well. Taylor will likely be guarding Hansbrough a lot of the time as they won’t want Blake picking up cheap fouls early. The major factor Oklahoma has in this game which I think will give them a great chance is their ability to score with UNC. The Heels average 90 points per game which is an amazing number, the Sooners put up 80 points per game which is nothing to duck your head about. The Heels give up 73 points against while Oklahoma gives up 67 against. Ty Lawson looked like his old dominating self in their Sweet Sixteen demolition of Gonzaga. North Carolina was running all over the Bulldogs playing smart basketball. Before we go crowning them champs we should evaluate their opponents to date. Radford in round one, a LSU team from the SEC who is not impressive and a Gonzaga team who, lets be honest, almost lost to Western Kentucky, so while The Heels are rightfully the favorites, lets take it easy and analyze this before be go shouting…BLOW OUT. Taking a look at today’s college basketball lines, the North Carolina Tar Heels are 7 point favorites over Oklahoma with the total set for 164 points.
With the exception of Butler OVER Lsu and Arizona State OVER Syracuse, I have been right on the money in the South with my SU predictions as well as a very high ATS percentage. I am not anti UNC. I think this team has the best starting five in the country without a shadow of a doubt. I do question though if they will be able to play big defensively in a tight late game situation against a big time team with superstar player. Blake Griffin has been beyond ridiculous. This guys ability is something that doesn’t come around to often. I stated before the tournament started, out of all the regions these are the prime time locks as the one and two seeds to face off. Both Oklahoma and UNC are 3-0 ATS in the tournament to date. The two squads are playing at arguably their highest level of play all year long. Coach Capel has been undermined by the critics since this tournament started, I got a plethora of posts before the Syracuse vs Oklahoma game started saying he wont be able to handle the zone Coach Boheim has his kids play. Well, we all saw how true that was. If you have any errands or household duties that need to be done, I highly suggest you take care of them before 5:05 eastern time, this game you will not want to miss.
Point Guard: Ty Lawson vs Austin Johnson (EDGE-UNC) I have said for quite some time now, people need to start giving Austin Johnson the recognition he deserves. Johnson runs this team nicely and can shoot the three pointer well. He is a good floor general who has exceptional court vision. Ty Lawson is just to much for him to handle. The ACC player of the year Lawson was awarded and for good reason. He has all the same qualities Johnson has but is much stronger.
Shooting Guard: Wayne Ellington vs Willie Warren (EDGE-OKLAHOMA) Before All you Baby Blue fans throw a fit on this one, let me explain why. Ellington is a pure scorer, he creates for himself but likes to play at his own pace. Willie will not allow him to get comfortable. Warren’s speed is tremendous and he can create for himself as well. This kid might only be a freshman, but he plays like a senior leader. I expect Warren to get the upper hand here.
Small Forward: Danny Green vs Tony Crocker (EDGE-EVEN) A mirror image these two are of each other. Both are knock down three point shooters, when they are on. Either one can put up 20+ or go scoreless. Crocker can create for himself a little better while Green is more athletic and a bigger impact on the defensive end. Flip a coin to decide the advantage here.
Power Forward: Tyler Hansbrough vs Taylor Griffin (EDGE-UNC) This is a skewed break down. Hansbrough and Griffin will of course be the ones who will try to out duel one another. However, this break down is done by position, so that is what i do. Psycho T is what they call the four year consecutive All-Conference performer and back to back All-American performer which includes a national player of the year award. Hansbrough is to physical for the other Griffin and will get the big time edge on the board. Taylor can spot up against him and hit mid range shots though. None the less, edge to the Heels.
Center: Deon Thompson vs Blake Griffin (EDGE-OKLAHOMA) Nobody that matches up against Blake will ever get an edge. It is very similar to a one seed vs a 16 seed match up. Pencil it in. Blake is to athletic, to skilled, has a much more explosive scoring eye and will be to much for Deon to handle. As stated Hansbrough will get his cracks at the nations best. Thompson is no slouch, he is a big body who plays very strong inside the paint. Big time Sooners advantage.
We split yesterday hitting the Wildcats in an instant classic and were a missed wide open layup by Zaire Taylor away from going 2-0. This game will be very close in my mind. While I am leaning towards Oklahoma pulling the upset, I am not so sure. I do know 7.5 points is very enticing to me when I have one of the most dominating college basketball players the game has seen in some time. Take the points.
Betting Line: UNC -7
Jordan’s Pick: Take Oklahoma +7
Documented Record:
21-16 OVERALL
7-4 BEST BESTS
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