Oklahoma State at Missouri Spread

Written by Jack Jones

The No. 4 Oklahoma State Cowboys hit the road Saturday to square off against the Missouri Tigers. The Tigers had won four straight in this series before the Cowboys put an end to that streak in 2004. OSU has now won three of the last four meetings, including a 33-17 home victory in their most recent meeting in ‘09. Missouri actually outgained OSU 393-351 in that game, but they were done in by four costly turnovers, including three interceptions from former quarterback Blaine Gabbert.

Taking a look at the college football lines, I find a spread of Oklahoma State -6.5 over Missouri and a total set of 68.5 points.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are proving that last year’s run at a Big 12 title was no fluke. Oklahoma State (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) has picked up two very impressive road wins in their last three games, beating then-No. 8 Texas A&M 30-29 on September 24th and then-No. 22 Texas 38-26 last Saturday. The Cowboys did most of their damage on the ground against the Longhorns, rushing for 202 yards.

Jeremy Smith led the way with 140 yards on only seven carries, including two long touchdown runs of 30 and 74 yards. The defense forced three Texas turnovers, and Justin Gilbert took the opening kickoff in the second half back 100 yards for a score. Most folks view Oklahoma State as a one-dimensional passing team, but they have been getting contributions everywhere. The Cowboys rank 2nd in the country in total offense (551.2 yards/game), including 2nd in passing (395.7 yards/game) and 55th in rushing (155.5 yards/game). They are also rank 2nd in scoring offense (49.2 points/game).

The defense has been sub-par thus far, sitting at 100th in the land in total defense (426.7 yards/game) and 68th in scoring (27.3 points/game). Fortunately, quarterback Brandon Weeden and this offense have more than made up for it. Weeden is completing 72.7 percent of his passes for 2,098 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. Joseph Randle (552 yards, 5.2/carry, nine TD) and Jeremy Smith (354 yards, 6.9/cary, seven TD) have assured that opposing teams have to account for their ground game. Justin Blackmon remains one of the best wide receivers in the country. He has a team-high 53 receptions for 608 yards and seven touchdowns.

Missouri

The Tigers have been dealt a pretty tough schedule, and as a result, they still don’t have a win over a quality opponent. Missouri (3-3, 1-2 Big 12) has suffered all three of their losses on the road at Arizona State, then-No. 1 Oklahoma and then-No. 20 Kansas State. They did not lose any of those games by more than 10 points, and certainly are better than their record would indicate. The Tigers bounced back nicely last Saturday with a 52-17 home victory over Iowa State. They outgained the Cyclones 583-343 behind 373 total yards and five total touchdowns from quarterback James Franklin.

Missouri ranks very well nationally despite their record in terms of offense and defense. The Tigers are 13th in the country in total offense (496.2 yards/game), and they can beat you on the ground (236.5 yards/game) as well as through the air (259.7 yards/game). They rank 30th in total defense (337.9 yards/game), and Mizzou is particularly stingy against the run (113.2 yards/game). Their secondary will certainly be tested this week, but they should be prepared for it after facing both Oklahoma and ASU earlier this season.

Franklin is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 1,488 yards and 10 touchdowns to four interceptions. He is also second on the team in rushing with 390 yards and seven touchdowns, right behind Henry Josey (717 yards, 9.7/carry, six TD). T.J. Moe is their go-to receiver with 31 grabs for 375 yards and two touchdowns. L’Damian Washington is their deep threat with 10 catches for 219 yards (21.9/reception) and two scores. Tight end Michael Egnew (22 receptions, 275 yards, two TD) and receiver Wes Kemp (16, 181, three TD) are also reliable targets.

Betting Trends

Oklahoma State is a superb 45-17-2 ATS in their last 64 games as a favorite. Better yet, the Cowboys are 20-4-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points, including 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Missouri is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win, and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. However, the Tigers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings as well.

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