Oklahoma State at Texas Tech Odds

Written by Jack Jones

After surviving a scare last week, the second-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys travel to face the Texas Tech Red Raiders Saturday in Big 12 play. The Cowboys almost certainly control their own destiny when it comes to playing for a national championship, and they cannot afford to overlook the Red Raiders. Oklahoma State has won the last two meetings, including a 34-17 road victory last season. Quarterback Brandon Weeden threw for 356 yards and a touchdown to lead the Cowboys to their first win at Texas Tech since 1944. The home team has won seven of the last eight in this series.

Looking at the football odds for Week 11, I find a line of Oklahoma State -17 over Texas Tech and a total set of 78.5 points.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys’ national title hopes were nearly crushed last week against then-No. 14 Kansas State. They trailed 24-14 in the second quarter before reeling off 20 unanswered points to take a 34-24 lead. The Wildcats would fight back to tied it at 45-45 with only 3:18 remaining, but the Cowboys responded with a game-winning 23-yard touchdown run by Joseph Randle with 2:16 to play. Kansas State would march down the field and actually had three shots at a touchdown from the OSU 5-yard line over the final 12 seconds. But the Cowboys came up big defensively to hold on for a 52-45 victory.

Weeden threw for a school-record 502 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions as the Cowboys racked up 575 total yards. They did commit four turnovers as a team, including a 60-yard interception return for a touchdown by Allen Chapman of the Wildcats. This defense continued to struggle as they gave up 507 total yards to Kansas State, including 276 rushing. All-American receiver Justin Blackmon came up big for the Cowboys with 13 receptions for 205 yards and two scores.

Oklahoma State (9-0, 6-0 Big 12) ranks 3rd in the country in total offense (557.4 yards/game), but just 109th in total defense (461.4 yards/game). They have the No. 2 passing offense (387.6 yards/game) behind Weeden, who is completing 72.1 percent of his passes for 3,212 yards with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Joseph Randle ranks second in the Big 12 in rushing with 915 yards and 18 touchdowns on the year. Blackmon has caught 87 balls for 1,039 yards and 12 scores.

Texas Tech

After a 4-0 start to the season, the Red Raiders have dropped four of their last five. But they have faced four ranked teams during this span, and their lone win was a huge won. Texas Tech (5-4, 2-4 Big 12) won at then-No. 3 Oklahoma 41-38 on October 22nd. They would lay an egg in their next game with a 41-7 home loss to unranked Iowa State before falling at then-No. 21 Texas 52-20 last weekend.

Texas Tech’s soft run defense was exposed against Texas as the Longhorns rushed for 439 total yards. Seth Doege threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns for the Red Raiders, but he could not do enough to overcome this suspect defense. Plus, their running game was stuffed time and time again, putting even more pressure on Doege to carry the load. Tech rushed 27 times for 30 yards, averaging a measly 1.1 yards/carry.

Tech ranks 11th in the country in total offense (497.3 yards/game), including 6th in passing (362.0 yards/game). Doege is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 3,160 yards with 24 touchdowns and six interceptions, so he’s certainly done his part. The problem has been a Red Raider defense that ranks 107th in yards allowed (451.6/game) and 105th in scoring (34.2 points/game). They are 112th nationally against the run (249.4 yards/game), so look for Randle to have a big game for the Cowboys.

Betting Trends

The Cowboys are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater, and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.

The Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog, and 45-19-1 ATS in their last 65 games following a loss.

Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Red Raiders, but just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Texas Tech.

If you are looking for a winning college football handicapper, then give the world-renown Jack Jones a try this weekend.

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