Oklahoma vs. Texas Spread

Written by Jack Jones

The Red River Rivalry returns Saturday when the third-ranked Oklahoma Sooners and No. 11 Texas Longhorns square off in the Cotton Bowl. This will only be the second time in the last seven years that these two teams enter this annual showdown unbeaten, adding even more fuel to the fire. This rivalry is over a century old, and the Sooners have won eight of the last 11 meetings overall. That includes last year’s 28-20 victory over the Longhorns.

Taking a look at the spreads for Week 6, I find a line of Oklahoma -9.5 over Texas with a total set of 56.5 points.

Oklahoma

The Sooners came into the season ranked No. 1 in the preseason polls, and they’ve fallen a couple spots despite coming into this game without a loss. Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) opened their season with a 47-14 win over Tulsa. They played at then-No. 5 Florida State in their second game, winning by a final of 23-13 after scoring the game’s final 10 points. The Sooners looked a little sloppy in their 38-28 home victory over Missouri on September 24th, but they responded with a 62-6 beat down of Ball State last week. They held the Cardinals to just 214 total yards and forced four turnovers, including three second-quarter interceptions from Tony Jefferson.

Landry Jones is certainly a candidate to win the Heisman Trophy. Jones is completing 71.6 percent of his passes for 1,447 yards and 10 touchdowns. The one knock on him thus far is that he’s thrown five interceptions, and he must take better care of the football Saturday. The biggest surprise for the Sooners so far has been Dominique Whaley, who has a team-high 379 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Ryan Broyles (38 receptions, 476 yards, six TD) has 24 more grabs than Oklahoma’s second-leading receiver in Kenny Stills (14, 205, two TD).

The Sooners feature a high-powered offense and a much-improved defense from a year ago. Oklahoma ranks 4th in the country in total offense (545.1 yards/game), including 5th in passing (377.8 yards/game). They are also 11th in scoring offense (42.5 points/game). The Sooners are 39th in the land in total defense (348.0 yards/game) and 14th in scoring defense (15.3 points/game).

Texas

The Longhorns came into the 2011 season unranked for the first time since Mack Brown took over as head coach in 1998. That’s because they lost seven games last season, and were a very young team coming in. Texas (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) has already proven they are a much better squad than last year’s version, and they appear to be getting better each week. They opened their season with a 34-9 victory over Rice, followed by a 17-16 win against BYU, a 49-20 blowout at UCLA, and a 37-14 triumph at Iowa State.

Texas is in the midst of a four-game stretch in which they play teams who beat them last year. Case McCoy took over at quarterback for Garrett Gilbert midway through the BYU game, and he has played very well since. Both he and David Ash split time at quarterback last week against Iowa State. McCoy went 7 of 12 passing for 110 yards, while Ash went 7 of 12 for 145 yards and two touchdowns. Ash played most of the important snaps last week, so it appears he is likely to be under center more than McCoy against the Sooners.

Freshman running back Malcolm Brown has led the way on the ground, rushing for 327 yards and a score. Foswhitt Whittaker and Cody Johnson each have four rushing touchdowns as well. Jaxon Shipley leads all receivers with 16 grabs for 280 yards and two touchdowns, and he’s the only Texas wideout with double-digit receptions in 2011. The Longhorns rank 46th in total offense (420.8 yards/game) and 13th in total defense (289.1 yards/game). They are also 36th in scoring offense (34.3 points/game) and 12th in scoring defense (14.8 points/game).

Betting Trends

Texas is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Oklahoma. The Longhorns are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.

The Sooners are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Oklahoma is, however, just 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

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