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Oregon at Boise State Football Picks & Predictions

Written September 3, 2009 by Anthony Moretti

oregon-boise-state-predictions-090309 Two of the AP Top 25 go head to head this Thursday when the 14th ranked Boise State Broncos host the 16th ranked Ducks of Oregon. Last year the Broncos won 37-32 at Eugene, Oregon, against a Ducks team that started the game with their #3 QB only to have him knocked out by a concussion in the first quarter and replaced by two true freshman for the remaining three quarters. According to the current college football odds, the Boise State Broncos are 3 point favorites against the Oregon Ducks with the total set at 64 points.

For Oregon, Chip Kelly is transitioning this year from offensive coordinator to head coach, and if his past performance is any indicator, his offense shouldn’t skip a beat. Last year the Ducks went on to have a 10-3 season in which the offense was ranked 7th in scoring (41.9 pnts/game) and 2nd in rushing (280.1 yds/game) in a competitive PAC-10. Even while losing Jeremiah Johnson to the NFL, they’re returning 1,000 yd rusher LaGarrette Blount, who at 235 pounds is a load to bring down. Concerns are the graduation of 6 seniors from the offensive line as well as seeing some stars emerge from the receiving core.

Oregon’s defense last year ranked in the middle of the pack in points allowed (28/game) and gave up 383 yards a game, mainly due to the Ducks extremely low time of possession (TOP), last year at 24.48 minutes, which left the defenders on the field for the majority of the game. However, many questions need to be answered by a defensive line that lost 3 of the 4 starters from last year, along with a young linebacker core that was known for inconsistency and broken assignments. Lockdown corner Walter Thurmond and free safety T.J. Ward will need to be leaders in the secondary and will be a big factor in how the defense measures up against a potent Boise State attack.

After losing 17-16 to TCU in the Poinsetta Bowl without throwing a touchdown, sophomore QB Kellen Moore is anxious to get back on the football field again to continue his perfect 12-0 regular season record and wipe the bad taste out of his mouth. He had success last year against the Oregon defense, throwing 3 TD’s for 386 yards with only 1 interception. Wide receiver Austin Pettis led the team with 9 touchdowns in the air and is returning with a solid core of receivers, while Jeremy Avery who averaged 5.5 yards a carry and D.J. Harper return to stabilize the running game.

The Broncos defense comes into this game heralded more highly than its offense, and last year was ranked 3rd in pts/game (12.3) and 15th in yards/game (294.5). Its secondary had 22 interceptions and is returning all 4 starters, and the defensive line and linebacking core are said to have filled any positions that were left vacant seamlessly. In addition, the 4-2-5 defensive scheme has been tweaked this year to specifically attack spread offenses.

The Broncos are looking to add to their home game regular season winning streak by making it 20 games in a row against the Ducks, and this game is being billed as the biggest in school history. The Broncos are playing their best football in years, as evidence by their third undefeated regular season in the last five years, but look for Masoli, now the #1 QB for the Ducks, to back up his words during the offseason that last year’s loss was “embarrassing” and that this year he and his team would “take it to (Boise State).” Boise State will put up points, but the marquee matchup with be how their defense can slow down Oregon’s strong spread-option attack.

Anthony’s Free Pick: Oregon Ducks +3

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