Oregon at Stanford Odds

Written by Jack Jones

In the game of the year in the Pac-12 conference, the second-ranked Stanford Cardinal host the sixth-ranked Oregon Ducks on Saturday, November 12th. This huge showdown that will likely produce the conference champion will be nationally televised on ABC at 8:00 EST. Oregon beat Stanford 52-31 at home last season despite falling behind 21-3 by the end of the first quarter. They would go on to outscore the Cardinal 28-0 after intermission. The Ducks racked up 626 total yards, including 238 passing and three touchdowns from quarterback Darron Thomas, and 257 rushing and three scores from LaMichael James. Andrew Luck threw for 341 yards and two touchdowns to two interceptions for Stanford.

Taking a look at the college football lines in Las Vegas, I find a spread of Stanford -4 over Oregon.

Stanford

The Cardinal came into the season with question marks outside of Heisman Trophy frontrunner Andrew Luck. But after winning their first nine games in impressive fashion, Stanford (9-0, 7-0 Pac-12) has proven that they are a legitimate national title contender. After a thrilling triple overtime victory at then-No. 20 USC 56-48 on October 29th, the Cardinal avoided a letdown by winning at Oregon State 38-13 last Saturday.

Stanford outgained the Beavers 507-285 for the game while controlling the ball for more than 40 minutes. They did so behind 300 rushing yards as a team, including 95 yards from Stepfan Taylor. Luck went 20 of 30 passing for a pedestrian 206 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Griff Whalen led all receivers with six grabs for 87 yards and a score. This was a 17-13 nail biter in the third quarter before Stanford pulled away by scoring the game’s final 21 points.

The Cardinal rank 8th in the country in total offense (505.8 yards/game). What many folks forget is that this is one of the top running teams in the land. Stanford ranks 16th in rushing (224.7 yards/game) and 3rd in scoring (48.2 points/game). What also gets overlooked is the fact that the Cardinal rank 18th in total defense (324.0 yards/game), including 3rd against the run (78.9 points/game). Stopping the Oregon rushing attack will be key if the Cardinal are to prove victorious Saturday.

Luck is certainly the leading candidate to win the Heisman. The junior is completing 71.3 percent of his passes for 2,424 yards with 26 touchdowns to five interceptions. Taylor is one of the most underrated players in the country, leading the team with 891 rushing yards (6.1/carry) and eight touchdowns. Whalen is Luck’s favorite target with 36 grabs for 534 yards and two scores.

Luck really looks for Coby Fleener in the red zone. The senior tight end has turned 20 receptions into eight touchdowns. Stanford will likely be without two of their best pass-catchers Saturday in receiver Chris Owusu (35 receptions, 376 yards two TD) and tight end Zach Ertz (22 receptions, 308 yards, three TD). Owusu suffered a concussion against Oregon State and Ertz is battling a knee injury.

Oregon

The Ducks have responded well since a season-opening 40-27 loss to then-No. 4 LSU. Oregon (8-1, 6-0 Pac-12) still has an outside chance at playing for a national title. They have been helped by the fact that the Tigers are the top-ranked team in the country and still have yet to suffer a defeat. The Ducks currently rank 7th in the BCS poll, and a win at Stanford Saturday would certainly help boost that ranking.

Oregon has reeled off eight straight wins, all by 14 points or more. They are coming off a 34-17 victory at Washington last Saturday. Their defense gets most of the credit for this win as they held the Huskies to just 278 total yards while forcing three turnovers. Darron Thomas was limited to 13 of 25 passing for 169 yards and a touchdown, but LaMichael James was able to save the day by rushing for 156 yards and a score. This was a 24-17 contest in the third quarter before Oregon scored the game’s final 10 points, and they were able to hold on behind a strong defensive effort.

Like Stanford, this team can light up a scoreboard. The Ducks rank 7th in total offense (510.6 yards/game) and 5th in scoring (46.0 points/game). Their strength is a running game that ranks 5th in the FBS (298.4 yards/game). While Oregon is a sub-par 62nd in total defense (383.8 yards/game), they are a very respectable 26th in scoring defense (20.8 points/game). Their stop unit has been buckling down in the red zone and forcing key turnovers all year.

James is still in the Heisman Trophy discussion despite missing a few games due to injury. He has rushed fro 1,061 yards (8.0/carry) and nine touchdowns on the season. Also, Kenjon Barner has scampered for 601 yards (6.8/carry) and eight touchdowns. Throw in De’Anthony Thomas (349 yards, 8.5/carry, five TD), and this is easily the best backfield in the country.

Thomas has played pretty well at quarterback to keep opposing defenses honest. He is completing 60.1 percent of his passes for 1,549 yards and 19 touchdowns to five interceptions. De’Anthony Thomas is also their leading receiver with 25 grabs for 382 yards and six touchdowns. Lavasier Tuinei has 28 receptions for 360 yards and seven scores. With the exception of James, Oregon has been very fortunate in the health department this season, and they really don’t have any key injuries heading into this one.

Betting Trends

The Ducks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.

The Cardinal are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall, and 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a win.

Oregon is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Stanford, and the OVER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.

If you want the winning side in this Pac-12 contest Saturday, then sign up for a premium package from expert handicapper Jack Jones.

Comments

Got something to say?