Oregon State at Oregon Odds

The No. 5 Oregon Ducks (10-1, 7-1 Pac-12) travel to Reser Stadium to take on the No. 16 Oregon State Beavers (8-2, 6-2 Pac-12) in the Civil War rivalry this Saturday. Oddsmakers have installed Oregon as a 9.5-point favorite at Oregon State with a total set of 64.5 points.

Why Oregon Covers

Following a heartbreaking 14-17 loss to Stanford last week, the Ducks realize they need style points against Oregon State to help out their BCS ranking. They are No. 5 in the BCS right now and would need two more wins and some help to play in the national title game. Look for Oregon to try and run up the score as much as possible because of it.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Oregon and Oregon State have played six of the same opponents this season. Oregon is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread vs. those six teams, outscoring them 44.7 to 17.0, or by an average of 27.7 points per game. Oregon State is 4-2 straight up and 3-3 against the spread against those same six teams, outscoring them by 11.2 points per game.

Oregon has played its best football away from home this season. It is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in road games, outscoring opponents 53.7 to 28.7, or by an average of 25.0 points per game.

The Ducks have owned this series with the Beavers in recent years. They are 4-0 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread in the last four meetings, winning three times by 17 points or more. That includes last season’s 49-21 triumph at home.

Oregon is 7-1 against the spread in its last 8 road games overall. The Ducks are 10-0 against the spread in road games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1992. Oregon is 19-6 against the spread in its last 25 games following a home loss.

Why Oregon State Covers

The Beavers have been underrated all season. They may be again this weekend as a 9.5-point home underdog in the Civil War. They are 8-2 on the season with their only losses coming on the road against Washington and Stanford by a combined 7 points.

This team is the real deal, and it’s coming off its most complete performance of the season in a 62-14 victory over California last week. The Beavers would love nothing more than to completely ruin the Ducks’ season by winning this contest while avenging last year’s lopsided defeat in Eugene.

Oregon State has clearly played its best football at Reser Stadium this year. It is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at home, outscoring opponents 29.6 to 12.0, or by an average of 17.6 points per game. The Beavers rank 21st in the country in scoring defense (18.6 points/game) this year, and its stop unit gives it a chance to pull off the upset.

The Beavers are 8-1 against the spread vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 2 seasons. Oregon State is 6-1-1 against the spread in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The Ducks are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The underdog is 4-1-1 against the spread in the last 6 meetings.

About the Author: Jack Jones has been ranked in the Top-5 on the Overall Leaderboard for almost all of 2012 here at Betfirms. He has climbed as high as No. 2 while competing against roughly 80 of the best handicappers in the world. He finished as the No. 6 Ranked Basketball Handicapper from 2011-12, which combines pro and college hoops. His $1,000/game basketball players cashed in $22,310 last season. Head on over to Jack's premium pick page to see what he has in store for tonight!