Oregon at UCLA Free Football Picks
Written October 9, 2009 by Jack Jones
Oregon has been at home 4 weeks in a row, rattling off 4 straight wins. I was really only impressed by the win over Cal during that stretch. Now it faces the tough task of heading out on the road after a long home stand and I fear this one has letdown written all over it for the Ducks. UCLA is greatly improved, and it will be hungry to get right back in the win column after enduring its first loss of the season to Stanford last week. The key here is how well UCLA’s defense has played this season and also how tough the Bruins have played the Ducks. Oregon has been favored against UCLA each of the last 2 seasons and the Bruins have covered the spread in both meetings. Last season, UCLA had no business being on the same field with the Ducks, but it played Oregon to a 7-point game on the road as a 20.5-point dog. The season before, Oregon came to L.A. as a 2-point favorite and the Bruins shut out the Ducks 16-0. Oregon has not won five straight games since 2005 and that is going to be a difficult task with a banged up QB (Jeremiah Masoli). So much of Oregon’s offense relies on his running ability and his banged up knee is going to keep him from being as effective a runner, if he can even go. I also can’t help but mention that the Bruins are 17-5 ATS at home in Pac-10 play the last 5 seasons and 21-6 ATS as a home underdog since 1992. Plus, plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses against an opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins are 75-34 ATS the last 10 years. With my free football picks this weekend I’ll take UCLA and the points for 1 unit.
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