2012 Outback Bowl Odds

Written by Steve Janus

The 2012 Outback Bowl will be a battle between two teams who lost their conference championship game, as the Michigan State Spartans take on the Georgia Bulldogs. Kickoff is scheduled for Monday, January 2nd at 1:00 ET and will be televised nationally on ABC. The Spartans lost 39-42 in a rematch against Wisconsin for the Big 10 Championship, while the Bulldogs lost 10-42 to No. 1 LSU in the SEC Championship.

Taking a look at the college football bowl spreads, oddsmakers currently have Georgia favored by 3.5-points over Michigan State with the total set at 50 points.

Michigan State:

The Spartans finished up the regular season 10-2 overall and 7-1 in the Big Ten Conference. They would go on to lose to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship to drop to 10-3, but you have to wonder how the Michigan Wolverines got a BCS bid over the Spartans. Not only did Michigan State finish with the best conference record of any team, but they beat Michigan 28-14 during the season. I have a pretty good feeling head coach Mark Dantonio will use the lack of respect as motivation for beating Georgia.

The Spartans are known more for their defense, but they come into this game averaging just under 81 ppg. That number jumped up to nearly 39 ppg in the final five games. During that stretch Michigan State averaged 158 yards on the ground and another 275 yards through the air.

Senior quarterback Kirk Cousins is what really makes the offense click. Cousins has completed 65% of his attempts for 3,016 yards with 24 touchdowns to just seven interceptions. His favorite target is senior wide out B.J. Cunningham, who hauled in 72 passes for 1,240 yards and 12 touchdowns. Fellow senior Keshawn Martin is also a big threat in the passing game, catching 62 passes for 742 yards and four scores.

The Spartans also have a couple of pretty talented running backs in sophomore Le’Veon Bell and junior Edwin Baker. Bell led the way with 900 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Baker added 655 yards and five scores.

The big question is whether or not Cousins will be able to keep the offense on the field against Georgia. The Bulldogs come in with one of the best defenses in the country. They finished 10th against the run ( 103.4 ypg) and 8th against the pass (165.1 ypg).

Georgia:

The Bulldogs are another team that has to feel like they are talented enough to be playing in a BCS Bowl. Georgia comes in with pretty much the same record. The Bulldogs went 10-2 overall and 7-1 in the SEC, before dropping to 10-3 with a loss to LSU in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia’s three losses came against then No. 5 Boise State, No. 12 South Carolina, and No. 1 LSU.

The Bulldogs opened the season with back-to-back losses against Boise State and South Carolina. A lot of teams could have packed it in and finished with a mediocre record. Georgia would go on to win their next 10 games, most of which weren’t even close.

Offensively the Bulldogs come in averaging 32.2 ppg. They to have a very balanced offensive attack, ranking 50th in passing (241.2 ypg) and 40th in rushing (172.7 ypg). The strength of this team is their defense, but neither unit played well against LSU.

Sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray made some really nice strides in his second season as the starting quarterback. Murray threw for just 2,861 yards, but finished the year with 33 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions. Unlike Michigan State, the Bulldogs have a number of receivers who you have to watch out for. Orson Charles had a team-best 44 receptions, Malcolm Mitchell had a team-high 614 receiving yards, and Tavarres King led the way with seven receiving touchdowns.

The Bulldogs had a number of players help out in the ground game, but the majority of the production came from freshman Isaiah Crowell, who carried 182 times for 847 yards and five touchdowns. Crowell managed just 15 yards on 10 attempts against LSU, with 11 of those yards coming on one carry.

It unlikely Crowell will have a huge game against Michigan State. The Spartans are 12th in the country against the run (104.3 ypg) and 11th against the pass (168.4 ypg). This game is going to come down to which offense can make the most plays against these two stingy defenses.

Betting Trends:

Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Bowl game

Georgia is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in January.

Predicted Score: Georgia 27, Michigan State 23

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win the rest of the college football bowl season. Also, check out our 2011 college football bowl predictions for a preview of every bowl game.

Comments

Got something to say?