2011 PAC-12 Football Predictions
Written by Steve Janus
In 2010 what is now formally known as the PAC-10 featured two of the best teams in the entire country in Oregon and Stanford. The Ducks went a perfect 12-0 before falling to Auburn in the BCS National Championship game, while the Cardinal also landed in a BCS bowl game, beating Virginia Tech 40-12 in the Orange Bowl. Stanford’s only loss came on the road at Oregon, in a game where they blew a huge first half lead.
The problem with this conference is the rest of the teams just aren’t all that good right now. Washington and USC were the only other teams to finish with a record above .500 in the conference. 2011 marks the beginning of what is now known as the PAC-12, as Colorado and Utah have been added to mix. The conference has been split up into two divisions (North/South), and I have ranked the six teams in each division below, plus I give out my early prediction on who will win the inaugural PAC-12 Championship Game.
North Division
1. Stanford Cardinal -I was surprised to see Andrew Luck return for his junior season, despite the fact that head coach Jim Harbaugh left the team to coach in the NFL. Luck is the best quarterback in college football, and a future No. 1 pick. With him back the Cardinal are not only my favorites to win the PAC-12, but are legitimate National Title contenders. The key game for Stanford is at home against Oregon on Nov. 12th.
2. Oregon Ducks - The Ducks are coming off a close loss in the National Championship Game, and should be an elite team again in 2011. They return starting quarterback Darron Thomas and star running back LaMichael James. I think the defense will be down a few notches with just five starters back. While the late game against Stanford will likely decide the North, we will find out a lot about this team in their season opener against a very highly regarded LSU team.
3. Oregon State Beavers -After the top two of Oregon and Stanford, the rest of this division is pretty much up for grabs. Oregon State loses a big piece of the offense in running back Jacquizz Rodgers, but this school has produced a 1,000 yard rusher in 11 seasons since 1998. They bring back starting quarterback Ryan Katz and talented group of receivers. If the defense can hold up they should finish no worse than 5-4 in conference play.
4. California Golden Bears – The Bears will have the difficult task of having to play all their home games at AT&T Park in San Francisco, as Memorial Stadium goes under renovation. Out of Cal’s five wins last season, only one came on the road, which is why I have them down in my rankings this year. If this team can find a way to play well at AT&T Park they could easily top the Beavers for the No. 3 spot.
5. Washington Huskies - While the Huskies have 15 starters back, I think the loss of Jake Locker is huge for this team. Locker didn’t have a great season in 2010, but this team was as good as it was because of him. They should be better defensively with eight starters back, but that unit gave up just over 29 points a game last year.
6. Washington State Cougars – The Cougars are just 2-25 in conference play over the last three seasons. They should be more competitive than they were a year ago with 15 starters back, but I have a hard time seeing them being favored in any conference game. Jeff Tuel is going to have to be great for Washington State to even have a chance to win, and even then it likely won’t be enough with the horrid defense they have coming back.
South Division
1. Arizona State Sun Devils -Even though the Sun Devils went just 6-6 last year, I believe this team is ready to take that next step and be a force in the conference this season. I have them rated slightly ahead of USC, who they get at home this season. Look for this team to make some major improvements defensively, but for them to really have a shot at winning this conference they are going to need junior quarterback Brock Osweiler to step in and be effective.
2. USC Trojans – USC has not been the same team we are use to seeing the last couple years. Even if they win the South they are still suspended from postseason play and would have to give up their spot in the title game. I think not being able to play for the championship hurts this team, as they really don’t have much to play for outside of ruining other teams chances of taking the conference. They should be strong offensively with Matt Barkley back at quarterback, but there is still some concern with this team on the defensive side of the ball (26.7 ppg in 2010).
3. UCLA Bruins – Few will likely have the Bruins this high in the standings after their 4-8 mark in 2010, but I think this team has the talent to really turn things around in 2011. They should really make some big improvements with nine starters back on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively they lose a couple of really good players in safety Rahim Moore and linebacker Akeem Ayers, but have a number of talented young players back. UCLA also benefits from not playing Oregon out of the North.
4. Arizona Wildcats – While I have some big concerns with the Wildcats on the defensive side of the ball, they should have one of the top offenses in the conference with quarterback Nick Foles, running back Keola Antolin, and wide out Juron Criner all back. They miss out on an easy win by not having Washington State on the schedule, and have four tough home games against Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, and Utah. If the defense is better than expected, Arizona could end up competing for the division title.
5. Utah Utes – While I think the Utes will compete in this conference, I don’t think it will be in 2011. They have just 12 starters back, and will play a lot better competition than what they have been playing in the Mountain West. I think this team is really going to struggle defensively with all the speed in this conference, and making things even harder is the fact that they have just five starters back on that side of the ball.
6. Colorado Buffaloes – The Buffaloes haven’t had a winning season since going 7-6 in 2005. While they should be a better team than they were in 2010 with 16 starters returning, they no longer get the luxury of playing the pathetic Big 12 North. Colorado is 2-24 on the road over the last five years, and come into 2011 having lost 17 straight away from home. I’m not giving them a chance at home against Oregon or USC, leaving home games against California, Washington State, and Arizona as the only games they even have a shot at winning in conference play this season.
PAC-12 CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Stanford defeats Arizona State
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