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Packers Falcons Odds

The Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons square off for the third time in less than a year in Week 5 NFL action Sunday. Atlanta beat Green Bay 20-17 on November 28th last year in the regular season, but the Packers would have their revenge in the playoffs. Green Bay embarrassed the Falcons 48-21 in the second round en route to winning the Super Bowl. They outgained Atlanta 442-194 in that contest behind a dominant performance from Aaron Rodgers, who completed 31 of 36 passes for 366 yards with three touchdowns.

Taking a look at the Week 5 lines, I find a spread of Green Bay -6 over Atlanta with a total set of 53 points.

Green Bay

The Packers remain the hottest team in football since their Super Bowl victory. Green Bay (4-0) has now won 10 straight games including the postseason since a 31-27 loss at New England in Week 15 last year. But Rodgers didn’t play in that game due to a concussion, and he has been on an absolute tear since returning. After a 49-23 throttling of the Denver Broncos last Sunday, the Packers are averaging an NFL-best 37.0 points per game.

Rodgers threw for 408 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for two scores in their win over the Broncos. He became the first player in NFL history to accomplish that feat. Charles Woodson also scored a touchdown on an interception return, the 11th time he’s done that in his career. Greg Jennings is a hot receiver right now, catching 17 balls for 222 yards in his last two contests. Atlanta had no answer for him last season as Jennings caught 18 balls for 220 yards in their two meetings.

On the season, Rodgers is completing 73.0 percent of his passes for 1,325 yards and 12 touchdowns to two interceptions. James Starks and Ryan Grant have combined for 367 rushing yards and a touchdown, providing just enough of a threat on the ground to keep opposing teams honest. Green Bay ranks 5th in the league in total offense (419.3 yards/game), but they have suffered a drop in production on defense. The Packers are 28th in total defense (406.8 yards/game), including 31st against the pass (335.8 yards/game). Obviously, teams have had to throw the ball a lot more against them since they are usually playing from behind, so those numbers are a bit skewed.

Atlanta

Perhaps because of Atlanta’s envy for Green Bay’s high-powered offense, the Falcons went out and drafted Julio Jones in the first round to try and surround Matt Ryan with yet another weapon. They could have invested in defense instead, which is something they may be regretting right now. Atlanta (2-2) has given up 28 or more points three times in four games, so they really haven’t been able to stop anyone.

Leading 27-7 last week, the Falcons let Seattle come all the way back and make a game out of it. The Seahawks had a total of 30 points coming into that game, but managed 372 total yards and four touchdowns in a 30-28 Atlanta victory. They made Tarvaris Jackson look like one of the best quarterbacks in the league as he threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns.

The Falcons would love to get Michael Turner back on track this week. He has been held to a total of 90 rushing yards the past two weeks after opening the season with back-to-back 100-yard performances. He ran for 231 yards in his previous two meetings with the Packers before getting held to 39 yards on 10 carries in the playoffs. Matt Ryan has thrown six touchdown passes to four interceptions this season, and his been sacked 13 times already. He leads a unit that is 12th in the league in total offense (360.3 yards/game). Atlanta’s stop unit ranks 21st in the NFL in total defense (372.7 yards/game), including 24th against the pass (275.7 yards/game).

Betting Trends

The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings as well.

The Packers are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall, and 7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.

Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, but just 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.