Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs
In the final game of a three game home stand the Kansas City Chiefs (1-10) welcome the Carolina Panthers (3-7) to Arrowhead Stadium. On Bet365 I found that the Panthers have been listed as 3-point favorites, with an over/under of 40.5.
Why Carolina Covers:
Cam Newton is coming off his best performance all season passing for 2 touchdowns and rushing for 2 more. Earning him the NFC offensive player of the week honors. What better way to carry momentum over to this week than facing a Kansas City Chief team that is 0-5 at home in their last 5 games.
Carolina is 8-2 in their last ten games as road favorites. I don’t think you could find a better opponent than the Chiefs to continue that trend. They are averaging both a league worst 14.6 points per game while totaling the worst turnover margin in the league at -21.
This Sunday we could very well see the Panthers reach 30 points in back-to-back weeks for the first time this season. The Chiefs are giving up an average of 27.4 points per game to opponents. A total the Chiefs will have to keep Carolina under since they are 67-9 against the spread when scoring at least 27 points.
The Panthers own this series with a 3-0 record against Kansas City. While it should be known that Kansas City has a terrible 3-12 record off a divisional home game. This is all adding up for Arrowhead stadium to spot superman in the living flesh this Sunday.
Why Kansas City Covers:
Saying this season has been disappointing for Kansas City would be an understatement. This team had high hopes to get back to their playoff form like in 2010 when they finished 10-6 before Jamal Charles got injured. Instead even with Charles back in the lineup they regressed. Assuming they win the remainder of their games the best they could finish is 6-10.
To stay in this game the Chiefs will have to play the defense we saw last week against Denver (17 points) and week five against Baltimore (9 points). Keeping it within a touchdown could give them a shot at winning their second game this season.
For this to happen they will need to give the ball to Jamal Charles. In games this season where he gets 20 or more touches they have either won, or lost by less than a score. Even better, in every case they are 4-0 against the spread in these games:
Week 3 New Orleans – 33 touches – W 27-24 (+9.5) ATS win
Week 5 Baltimore – 31 touches – L 6-9 (+7) ATS win
Week 9 Pittsburgh – 23 touches – L 13-16 (+13.5) ATS win
Week 11 Denver – 23 touches – L 9-17 (+10) ATS win
Hopefully Romeo Crennel wakes up and realizes they should be giving the ball to this man more often! He can make magic happen when he gets space. Something he should get plenty of against a Carolina Panthers team that ranks 25th against the rush and giving up an average of 126 yards per game.
Kansas City is 27-13 against the spread in home games versus non-conference opponents since 1992. While they have a respectable 6-3 record against the spread as a home dog since 2011.