Panthers Saints Line

Written by Steve Janus

The New Orleans Saints will finish up the regular season on Sunday against the improving Carolina Panthers. The Saints locked up the NFC South and the No. 3 seed in the NFC with a 45-16 win over the Falcons last week. New Orleans can still get the No. 2 seed, but would need the 49ers to lose at St Louis. The Panthers whooped up on the Buccaneers 48-16 last Sunday, giving them four wins over their last five games. Carolina nearly beat the Saints back in week 9, as the Saints scored a touchdown in the final minute to win 30-27.

Taking a look at the week 17 NFL lines, oddsmakers currently have the Saints favored by 8-points over the Panthers with the total set at 54.5 points.

Carolina Panthers:

Win or lose the Panthers have to be excited about the future of their team behind rookie quarterback Cam Newton. Last year the Panthers won just two games all season. They are guaranteed to finish no worse than 6-9.

I don’t think people understand just how much better this Panthers team has been. Five of their nine losses were decided by a touchdown or less. In two other losses they blew a 24-7 lead in a 35-49 loss at Detroit and a 23-0 lead in a 23-31 loss to the Falcons.

A lot of people thought the Panthers were made a mistake drafting Newton with the No. 1 pick, but in the end it was Carolina who got the last laugh. Newton set the NFL single season record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in week 13, and last week he broke Peyton Manning’s rookie record for passing yards in a season. Newton has 3,893 passing yards with 20 touchdowns and 674 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. The only knock on the youngster is his 16 interceptions, but that is expected when you have a rookie quarterback throw as much as Newton has this season.

The success of Newton has rejuvenated the career of veteran wide out Steve Smith, who has a team-best 73 receptions for 1,308 yards and six touchdowns. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have combined for 1,465 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, with both averaging over 5.0 yards per carry.

The first time the Panthers faced the Saints, Newton threw for 224 yards and two scores and Williams needed just nine carries to pile on 115 yards and a touchdown running the ball. The Saints defense has given up a lot of yards this season, and if they end up taking this game easy the Panthers could end up winning this game outright.

New Orleans Saints:

The big question coming into this game, is whether or not head coach Sean Payton will play his starters or rest of for the postseason. In a similar situation back in 2009, Payton opted to rest his starters in the final game of the season. The move payed off, as the Saints went on to win the Super Bowl that year.

In the Saints win over the Falcons last week, Drew Brees broke Dan Marino’s single season record of 5,084 passing yards. Brees went 23 of 39 for 307 yards with four touchdowns. Just how important that record is will likely determine how much Brees plays. Tom Brady is just 170 yards behind Brees for the record. If Brees doesn’t play, Brady will surely break the record against the Bills soft secondary.

What has really made the Saints offense next to unstoppable is their ability to also beat you with their running game, something they were desperately missing last season. New Orleans is 9th in the NFL with an average of 127.9 ypg on the ground. They have been even better than that over the last five games, averaging 145.5 ypg.

Whether or not the Saints win and cover the spread this week, all depends on what Payton decides to do with his key players. If Brees and the rest of the starters play the entire game, I give the Saints a pretty good shot at winning this game by double-digits. They are 7-0 at home this season, winning by nearly 23 points per game.

Betting Trends:

Carolina is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.

New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in the NFL.

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