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Panthers Texans Odds

The Houston Texans will be headed to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history after an improbable comeback over the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend. Now, their goal heading into Week 15 will to avoid having a letdown as they welcome the lowly Carolina Panthers to town. The Texans still have a lot to play for despite knowing they will be one of the six teams representing the AFC in the playoffs no matter how they finish.

Taking a look at the Week 15 spreads, I find a line of Houston -6.5 over Carolina with a total set of 45.5 points.

Houston

The Texans have put together a seven-game winning streak to clinch their first ever division title, while also earning a trip to the postseason for the first time. Houston (10-3, 5-1 home) is clearly one of the biggest surprises in the league this season. They have battled through injuries to continue to find ways to win. The Texans are down to their third-string quarterback, and they’ve been without star receiver Andre Johnson for most of the year. Also, top defensive player Mario Williams has been out most of the season, and star tailback Arian Foster has missed some time as well.

This is a team that just doesn’t quit, and they are coming off another gutsy performance over the weekend. Trailing 19-10 to the Cincinnati Bengals with just under six minutes to play, the Texans rallied for an improvable 20-19 victory. After a Neil Rackers 31-yard field goal cut the lead to six, followed by a stop defensively, rookie quarterback T.J. Yates got the ball back with just over two minutes left with no timeouts and 80 yards to go. He drove his team all the way down to the Cincinnati 6-yard line before finding Kevin Walter on a game-winning touchdown strike with two seconds to play. Yates finished with 300 passing yards and two touchdowns to one interception.

Houston comes into this game ranked 1st in the NFL in total defense (274.9 yards/game). Their stop unit has been the biggest reason for their turnaround after so many years of not being able to contain anyone defensively. The Texans only give up 16.0 points/game overall, including 13.0/game at home. They also rank 9th in the league in total offense (378.9 yards/game), including 2nd in rushing (151.9 yards/game). Foster (957 yards, eight TD) and Ben Tate (820 yards, three TD) combine to form the best backfield duo in the NFL. As of this writing, it’s unsure whether Johnson will return from his hamstring injury.

Carolina

The Panthers are perhaps the best 4-9 team in the history of the league. Carolina (4-9, 2-4 away) put together back-to-back impressive road victories over Indianapolis and Tampa Bay while outscoring their opposition 65-38. However, the Panthers came back last week and blew a 23-7 halftime lead to the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta would reel off 24 unanswered points after intermission to steal the victory. This has become a common theme all season for the Panthers.

Carolina has had a chance to win just about every game they have played this season entering the fourth quarter. But costly turnovers continue to haunt this team, and they just cannot seem to get stops when it matters most. The Panthers amassed 416 yards of offense, including 276 passing and two touchdowns from Cam Newton. He did throw two interceptions, though, while the Falcons did not give the ball away once. DeAngelo Williams rushed for 87 yards and a score in the loss.

The Panthers rank 5th in the NFL in total offense (399.0 yards/game) and 24th in total defense (365.4 yards/game). Aside from turnovers, Newton has been impressive in his rookie season. He is completing 59.7 percent of his passes for 3,573 yards with 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. He has also rushed for 554 yards and an NFL quarterback-record 13 touchdowns. Steve Smith is second in the NFL in receiving with 1,217 yards and five touchdowns as he and Newton have clearly been helping each other out.

Betting Trends

Carolina is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less.

Houston is 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams – averaging >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Carolina is 6-0 ATS versus excellent offensive teams – averaging >=375 yards/game over the last 3 seasons.