Patriots Steelers Spread

Written by Jack Jones

In one of the most anticipated games of the young season Sunday, the New England Patriots will travel to face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 8 NFL action. With Tom Brady under center, the Patriots have won four straight meetings with the Steelers. In fact, the Patriots have won five of their last six meetings in Pittsburgh, and they are 6-1 against the Steelers when Brady starts. Two of New England’s conference championships have gone through Heinz Field as well. New England won at there 39-26 last November in their most recent meeting.

Taking a look at the Week 8 NFL odds, I find a line of New England -3 over Pittsburgh and a total set of 52.5 points.

New England

The Patriots are very close to being unbeaten on the season. Their only loss came at Buffalo after blowing a 21-0 lead to start the game. New England (5-1, 2-1 away) is coming off a thrilling 20-16 victory over the Dallas Cowboys two weeks ago. Brady guided his team on a game-winning touchdown drive, finding Aaron Hernandez on an 8-yard scoring pass with just 22 seconds remaining. That win gave the Patriots some nice momentum heading into their bye, and now they’ve had two full weeks to prepare for Pittsburgh.

Brady has been nearly flawless against the Steelers throughout his career. He has a 114.9 rating while throwing nine touchdown passes to just one interceptions during a four-game winning streak over Pittsburgh. Brady leads a Patriots offense that sits atop the league with averages of 475.5 total yards and 350.5 passing yards per game. For the season, he has thrown for 2,163 yards with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Wes Welker is having a career year at receiver, leading the NFL with 51 receptions for 785 yards and six touchdowns.

The Patriots defense, however, has been on the opposite end of the spectrum. New England ranks last in total defense (423.7 yards/game), and they are allowing a league-high 322.2 passing yards, which is 33.3 more than the next-closest team. While the numbers look bad, Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin is not buying it. “That is a function of them just whacking people and being way out in front,” Tomlin said. “So if you come in and you think they are the 32nd best defense in football you are kidding yourself. They are whacking people pretty good. People are throwing the ball every down and they accumulate some yards, it is insignificant.”

Pittsburgh

The Steelers certainly have a lot more to prove heading into this one. Pittsburgh (5-2, 3-0 home) is coming off a 32-20 road victory over Arizona, but the Cardinals were just another cupcake opponent on a long list of them on the Steelers’ schedule thus far. Many are questioning whether they belong among the NFL’s elite, and they are going to have a chance to prove their doubters wrong over the next few weeks. After hosting the Patriots Sunday, they welcome the Baltimore Ravens and will be looking for revenge from a 35-7 loss to their AFC North rivals to open the season.

Ben Roethlisberger owns a 2-4 record all-time against the Patriots, but he has been pretty solid during the regular season when facing his counterpart. Roethlisberger has thrown 10 touchdowns to just two interceptions in five meetings aside from the playoffs. For the season, Roethlisberger is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 1,937 yards and 12 touchdowns to six interceptions. Rashard Mendenhall has been banged up, but he’s been productive when on the field. Mendenhall has a team-high 391 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Mike Wallace is quietly having another monster season for this Pittsburgh offense that ranks 9th in the NFL in total yardage (383.3/game). Wallace has 36 receptions for 730 yards and five touchdowns.

In winning its first three home games of the season, the Steelers have outscored their opposition 79-30. Despite some shaky play as a team, the Steelers have been rock-solid defensively all season. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in the league in total defense (279.0 yards/game), including 2nd against the pass (171.9 yards/game). Their defense has registered 17 sacks on the season, but only two interceptions. They have only forced three turnovers on the year, and their -10 turnover ratio certainly isn’t helping matters. They need to get back to wreaking havoc and getting takeaways if they want to have any chance of beating New England Sunday.

Betting Trends

The Patriots are 46-22-3 ATS in their last 71 road games, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. New England is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are a superb 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series.

If you are looking for winning NFL advice in Week 8, then trust in world-renown handicapper Jack Jones to deliver the goods.

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