NIT Championship Odds & Picks: Penn State vs Baylor
Written April 2, 2009 by Jordan Haimowitz
The Baylor Bears come into this game smoking hot. They are scoring at a high pace while shooting a great percentage from the field. I learned this the hard way taking SD State in the semis. LaceDarius Dunn was top notch and Curtis Jerrells was the best player on the court period. While Dunn and Jerrells have been great, Kevin Rogers has been right their next to them for the whole ride. Baylor started the year 13-1 and looked to be a possible threat in the Big-12. Then the Bears took downward spiral going 5-12 in their last 17 games to end the season. It is quite confusing on what caused their collapse. They have experienced players, tons of talent and no key injuries to speak of. They responded very nicely though come the conference tournament making a run to the championship game in which they lost against Missouri. The wins they piled up included vs Nebraska, Kansas and Texas. The numbers are quite even, Baylor averages nine more points a game while their opponent Penn State gives up eight less against. They both average near identical rebound totals per game while Baylor shoots better from the free throw line and are a deeper squad. Jerrells and Dunn combined for 48 points 6 assists and 10 rebounds versus The San Diego State Aztecs on Tuesday night which impressed many people including myself as the Aztecs are a super defensive team. Look for Baylor to keep this at a fast pace and to get off a lot of shots. If their guards play like they did on Tuesday, they have a great chance of winning the NIT. A quick look at the college basketball odds tonight show Baylor -3.5 against Penn State and the total set for 138 points.
Penn State is representing the Big-10 in the NIT championship game. They have defeated George Mason, Rhode Island, @ Florida (they were 11.5 point underdogs) and a dominating start to finish victory over Notre Dame. They have in my mind the best player on the court in sensational guard Talor Battle who put up 17 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists against Notre Dame on Tuesday night with only one turnover in 37 minutes of play. He is not the lone contributor on this team though, he is joined by senior forward Jamelle Cornley who collected 15 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists vs the Irish. Guard Stanley Pringle also puts in 13 points per game for the Nittany Lions this year. Penn State is known for their defense and sound play. In this game they will need to play a faster pace, which is something they have the ability to do. Baylor should be a very similar type match up as Florida was with the exception of Dunn’s ability inside and outside the lane. When the teams starters are broken down (check below), you see the players per position are shockingly even. High scoring threats are matched up together which I see leading to a fast track show down. This game may not get a high national rating, but it will be very entertaining
Guard: Talor Battle vs Tweety Carter (EDGE-Talor Battle of Penn State) – This is Penn State’s advantage every which way you look at. battle is stronger, has better court vision, he is a much better defender and is more versatile. He averages more points, rebounds and assists per game and is the superb talent. Nittany Lions must capitalize here.
Guard: LaceDarius Dunn vs Stanley Pringle (EDGE-LaceDarius Dunn of Baylor) – The same massive advantage I gave Penn State in the match up above, I give the same to Baylor in this one. Pringle is very good, but Dunn is great. LaceDarius averages more points and rebounds per game, is more athletic and is a better shooter. Baylor will need another big day from Dunn to win this championship,
G/F: Curtis Jerrells/Henry Dugat vs Chris Babb/Danny Morrissey (EDGE-Jerrells/Dugat of Baylor) – While Morrissey is a lights out shooter and Babb is intensity and athleticism, Jerrells is better then the two of the combined. Dugat is also a nice contributor who averages 10 points a game. This will be a tough duo for Penn state’s backup guards to stop. If Battle out performs Carter as i expect, it may not be that big of a problem for PSU.
Forward: Jamelle Cornley vs Kevin Rogers (EDGE-EVEN) - Oh what a doozy this one is going to be. Two skilled forwards who are playing at a very high level. Cornley averages 14 points and 6 rebounds per game while Rogers averages 12 points and 7 rebounds.. Rogers is stronger inside the paint as Cornley is more skilled from the perimeter. Both Cornley and Rogers are good defenders and are athletic to boot. The slight edge may go to Cornley for his total body of work as Rogers has picked it up as of late. With that said, all squared here.
F/C: Josh Lomers vs David Jackson/Andrew (EDGE-David Jackson of Penn State) – Now, the two of these men will most like not be guarding each other as Lomers is 7′0 tall and Jackson is 6′6. The man who will be defending Josh Lomers is Andrew Jones III of Penn State. Jones is a big body inside and much more athletic. Expect this duo to get the edge over Baylor as Lomers or his backup Diene are not very athletic or skilled.
The NIT championship at the worlds most famous arena, Madison Square garden in New York, NY. If you are expecting a blowout I would flip the channel and find something else to watch. I feel these two teams are dead even. Either team could get the victory and I see it coming down to the very buzzer. With that said Penn State is getting 4 points. In a game like this with two teams that match up their best players at the same respective positions. Baylor is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall while Penn State is 17-12-1 for the year. Take the Nittany Lions with the four points.
We had a rough night yesterday losing an unacceptable OVER in the Mavs vs Heat game as the teams went on a devastating drought in the last three minutes of the game. The Rockets made a great comeback down 11 at half they led by seven points in the fourth quarter and then collapsed. We look to bounce back tonight with some key winners.
Betting Line: Baylor -4 and O/U 138
Jordan’s Pick: Take Penn State +3.5 and OVER 138
Record To Date:
23-21 OVERALL
7-6 BEST BET
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- NIT Basketball Semifinals Picks: Baylor vs San Diego State
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- 2009-10 Penn State NCAA Basketball Predictions
- Notre Dame vs Penn State Predictions: NIT Semifinal Round
- 2009-10 Baylor College Basketball Predictions
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