Penn State vs Illinois NCAA Football Picks & Odds

Written September 25, 2008 by Jason Lowry

This weekend two of the best the Big 10 has to offer get ready to do battle in what could go a long way in deciding who will give Ohio State a run for the conference title, as #22 Illinois takes on #12 Penn State. The Fighting Illini come in at 2-1 after rolling off two straight wins, while the Nittany Lions are a perfect 4-0 and have yet to be tested in any game this season. The odds makers don’t see this one being to much of a game, as BetUS.com has Penn State favored by 16 points over Illinois in this one, and they have the over/under set at 55.5.

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There is no question that Illinois is going to be the toughest game the Nittany Lions face this season, as the Penn State’s non-confrence schedule wasn’t much to speak of. The Illini will need a strong offensive performance in this one, and if they go by their season averages they should have no problem, as they are averaging over 200 yards on the ground and through the air. The key player to the offense is quarterback Juice Williams, whose duel threat really gets this offense going. Williams is bringing in around 73 yards a game, and has thrown for 722 yards and 7 scores. The running game has been solid with the play of junior Daniel Dufrene who is averaging 100 yards a game. The only knock on Dufrene is he is yet to find the endzone, but that will likely change soon. This offense will have to be sharp against a stingy Lions defense, and if they can score this one, will be much closer than expected.

The Illini defense is likely the reason the offense will have to be putting plenty of points on the board, as Penn States offense has looked all of explosive this season. The defense hasn’t been anything to really talk about, and everyone remembers when they played the explosive offense of Missouri and gave up 52 points in a shoot out. The main problem with the defense is that it is allowing teams to run all over them, 163 yards a game so far. Bet Illinois +16 at BetUS.com

That brings us to the Nittany Lions offense, that has made opposing defenses look silly so far in the first month of the season. The Lions come in averaging over 52 points a game, and are putting up 274 yards on the ground, while still managing to put up over 264 yards through the air. The passing game has had no problems with Daryll Clark under center, as he has been just spreading the love to 3 of his great receivers, Jordan Norwood, Deon Butler, and Derrick Williams. Even with all the success you should know by now that coach Paterno wants to run the football more than anything. Its likely he will do just that this weekend with running back Evan Ryster, who comes in averaging a crazy 8.1 yards per carry so far this season. If this turns into a shootout this offense is more than capable of playing that kind of football.

The reason the odds makers likely have the game favored so greatly in the Nittany Lions favor, is the play of the Lions defense so far this season. Though they haven’t really played anyone, they have already racked up 14 sacks, and hasn’t let a team get over 14 points yet this season. Its unlikely they will be able to keep the Illini under 14 this weekend, but we wouldn’t be surprised if they did. Bet Penn State -16 at BetUS.com

As far as the actual game goes, professional handicapper Jason Lowry thinks that the college football odds makers got this one right, as he sees the Nittany Lions winning this one 45-24.

For more on the game check out what they are saying at Athlon Sports, also see what fellow Betfirms writer Jack Jones has to say in his Illinois Penn State Predictions.