Penn State at Northwestern Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Saturday the No. 22 Penn State Nittany Lions will look to remain unbeaten in Big Ten play when they go on the road to take on the struggling Northwestern Wildcats. The Nittany Lions held on for a 23-18 win over Purdue this past Saturday, improving to 5-1 overall and 3-0 in conference play. The Wildcats dropped to 0-3 inside the Big Ten after falling at Iowa 31-41. Penn State has won four straight over Northwestern, including a 35-21 win at home a season ago.

Taking a look at the week 8 college football spreads, oddsmakers currently have the Nittany Lions favored by 4-points over the Wildcats with the total set at 47.5 points.

Penn State Nittany Lions:

The Nittany Lions most recent win over Purdue was their their fourth win this season decided by 10-points or less. They continue to wear down their opponents behind a strong running game and one of the best defenses in the country. Their only loss on the year came at home against Alabama, who many believe is the best team in the country. It’s the closest anyone has come to beating the Crimson Tide this season.

Penn State got another big game out of sophomore running back Silas Redd, who had 131 yards and a touchdown on 28 attempts. It was the third straight game where Redd rushed at least 129 yard. Redd is arguably the most important piece to the offense, as the Nittany Lions just don’t have the weapons to consistently move the ball in the passing game.

It looks as though Joe Paterno has decided to stick with junior Matthew McGloin as the main quarterback, but sophomore Rob Bolden continues to see snaps. McGloin has completed 57% of his attempts for 903 yards with five touchdowns to just two interceptions, while Bolden has connected on just 45% of his throws for 526 yards with just one touchdown to four interceptions. Neither quarterback very good against the Boilermakers. McGloin went just 8 of 17 for 145 and Bolden was just 2 of 6 for 40 yards.

There is going to come a point in the season where Penn State needs their quarterback to step up and win them the game, it just doesn’t figure to be this week against Northwestern. The Wildcats come in giving up just over 429 yards of total offense. They have allowed 172 yards a game on the ground, and made a lot of average quarterbacks look like superstars.

Northwestern Wildcats:

The Wildcats were hoping the return of starting quarterback Dan Persa would make this team a legit threat to win the Legends Division in the Big Ten, but he has been unable to get this team on track. The biggest problem for this team is they can’t stop the opposing team from putting up more points than they can create offensively. They are averaging 30 ppg, but are giving up just over 40 in conference play.

Persa went 31 of 40 for 246 yards and a touchdown against the Hawkeyes, just one week after throwing for 331 yards in a loss to Michigan. While Persa doesn’t seem to have lost his touch throwing the ball, he hasn’t been nearly effective on his feet. Last year Persa had 519 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground in just 10 starts. In three starts this season he has negative 16 yards and no touchdowns.

To make up for Persa’s loss of mobility out of the pocket, the Wildcats have been subbing in backup quarterback Kain Colter to try and give the offense a little more life. Not only did Colter rush for a team-high 76 yards on 12 attempts, but he also threw for 44 yards and a touchdown.

Expect Northwestern to use Colter and any other trick they can think of to put points on the board against a Penn State defense that is allowing just 11.6 points per game. The Nittany Lions are 22nd against the run (103 ypg) and 7th against the pass (161.1 ypg).

Betting Trends:

Penn State is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite.

Northwestern is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 conference games.

Steve Janus delivered another winning week in college football. The expert handicapper is 23-7 over his last 30 college picks, and ready to help you make a profit in week 8.

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