Penn State at Ohio State Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Saturday the Ohio State Buckeyes will host the Penn State Nittany Lions in a matchup of two Big Ten programs who have had the spotlight on them for the wrong reasons. The Buckeyes were forced to fire head coach Jim Tressel after the NCAA found several players had received improper benefits. As you all well know, the Nittany Lions recently fired head coach Joe Paterno in regards to knowing that his former assistant Jerry Sandusky had sexually abused young children. Either way, these two teams will try and forget all that has gone wrong away from the football field when they face off in a game that could decide who wins the Big Ten Leaders division.

Taking a look at the week 12 college football spreads, oddsmakers currently have Ohio State favored by 7-points over Penn State with the total set at 39.5 points.

Penn State:

It’s a shame what the Penn State players have had to deal with over the last couple of weeks. Before all the allegations went down, Penn State was sitting on top the Big Ten with a perfect 5-0 conference record and looked on their way to winning the Leaders division. All the negative media attention proved to be too much for the Nittany Lions, as they loss 14-17 at home to Nebraska.

I’m not saying Penn State would have won that game if nothing had happened, but there is no question that it took its tole on everyone who is apart of that program. The positive thing is that it should get easier going forward, and this team still controls their own destiny in the Big Ten.

Penn State fell behind 17-0 with 8:51 left in the third quarter, but showed a lot of heart and determination by scoring two late touchdowns to trail by just 3-points with 5:42 left to play in the final period.

Surprisingly the Penn State offense had one of their better games, racking up 375 yards of offense behind junior quarterback Matt McGloin and a strong rushing attack. McGloin went completed 16 of 34 for 193 yards, which was the most he had totaled since putting up 204 on a soft Indiana defense back in early October. Stephfon Green rushed for a team-high 71 yards with two touchdowns, while Silas Redd added 53 yards on 15 attempts.

Repeating that kind of offensive production won’t be easy against an Ohio State defense that is 15th in the nation allowing just 317.2 ypg. The Buckeyes are strong against both the run and the pass, and figure to make things extremely difficult for a Penn State offense that averages just 21 points per game.

Ohio State:

The Buckeyes are coming off a pretty devastating loss of their own, as they went on the road and loss to Purdue 23-26 in overtime. The loss dropped Ohio State to 3-3 in the Leaders division, and now must not only beat Penn State and Michigan in their final two games, but will need Wisconsin to lose one of their final two games against Illinois and Penn State.

The Buckeyes looked like they were in big trouble after falling behind 7-17 at half, but they had their chance to win this game in regulation. Braxton Miller hit Jordan Hall for a 13-yard touchdown with just 55 seconds left to tie the game at 20-20, but the PAT was blocked and the Buckeyes would go on to lose in overtime.

Miller threw for a season-high 132 yards with two touchdowns in the defeat. While throwing for 132 yards isn’t saying much, Miller hadn’t thrown for more than 95 yards in his previous seven games. Both touchdowns tosses went to Hall, who finished the game with three catches for a team-high 58 yards. Miller and the passing game could get a boost this Saturday, as star wide out DeVier Posey is eligible to return from suspension. Posey was second on the team with 53 catches for 848 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2010.

The big difference in this game for Ohio State was their inability to get much of anything going on the ground. The Buckeyes finished with 163 rushing yards, but averaged just 3.5 ypg on 47 attempts. It was far from the 268 yards they averaged over their previous four games.

Ohio State is going to need to get that ground game working if they are going to take down the Nittany Lions at home. Penn State is holding opposing teams to just 119.5 rushing yards a game, but have allowed 380 over their last two games against Illinois and Nebraska.

Betting Trends:

Penn State is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.

Ohio State is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games.

Steve Janus is the No. 3 college football handicapper in 2011, and is ready to help you turn a profit with his week 12 college football selections.

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