Penn State at Wisconsin Line

Written by Steve Janus

The Big Ten Leaders Division is up for grabs this Saturday when the No. 19 Penn State Nittany Lions go on the road to face the No. 16 Wisconsin Badgers. Penn State leads the division with a 6-1 conference record, while Wisconsin is just a game back at 5-2. The winner will face Michigan State in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game. The Nittany Lions have won three of the last four meetings, but the two teams haven’t faced each other since Penn State won 48-7 at Wisconsin back in 2008.

Taking a look at the week 13 college football lines, oddsmakers currently have Wisconsin favored by 14.5-points over Penn State.

Penn State:

When you look at the spread for this game, you would think Wisconsin was the team leading the division. The Nittany Lions only conference loss this year was a 14-17 defeat at home to Nebraska, just days after head coach Joe Paterno was fired. However, this team came right back and went on the road and beat Ohio State 20-14, despite being 7-point underdogs in that game. While I would also give the edge to Wisconsin at home, I think Penn State deserves some more credit than what they are getting.

The Nittany Lions aren’t a flashy team that is going to go out and put up 30 points, but they have arguably the best defense of any team in the Big Ten. Wisconsin two losses this season have came against Michigan State and Ohio State, who are both known more for their defense than being to light up the scoreboard.

In their win over Ohio State, the Nittany Lions got just 88 yards passing from Matt McGloin, but piled on 239 rushing yards and two scores on 39 attempts. Stephfon Green scored both touchdowns and led the way with 93 yards on 16 attempts, but Penn State also got 63 yards from Silas Redd and 50 yards from Curtis Drake.

I expect a similar plan of attack against the Badgers, who are giving up 135.5 ypg on the ground. Penn State simply wants to keep this game close with a chance to win the game game or hold onto the lead late. By running the ball they will keep the high-powered Wisconsin offense off the field.

Wisconsin:

The Badgers have bounced back with three straight wins since losing those two games in a row to Michigan State and Ohio State. Wisconsin’s latest 28-17 win over Illinois was a lot harder than the final score may lead on. The Fighting Illini jumped out to a 14-0 lead and would take a 17-7 lead into half. The Wisconsin defense would step up and keep Illinois from scoring the rest of the game, while the offense got going with three second half touchdowns.

Monte Ball delivered most of the offense for the Badgers against Illinois. The junior running back rushed for 224 yards and two touchdowns on 38 attempts, and caught a 5-yard touchdown pass. It was the only passing touchdown for starting quarterback Russell Wilson, who went 10 of 13 for just 90 yards. Wilson finished with -6 yards rushing on four attempts, but gave the Badgers the lead for good with a 1-yard touchdown run as time expired in the third quarter.

The fact that Illinois was able to hold Wisconsin to just 285 yards of total offense will give Penn State plenty of reason to believe they can keep the Badgers from putting up a ton of points in this one. It’s going to come down to Penn State’s defense against Ball and the Wisconsin rushing attack. The Nittany Lions allowed Ohio State to rush for 206 yards last week, but held them to just 14 points.

Betting Trends:

Penn State is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Wisconsin is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in college football.

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