2012 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The Pittsburgh Pirates showed a glimpse of turning things around in 2011, but when it was all said and done the Pirates finished 4th in the NL Central at 72-90. This team was so bad at the end of the year, 19-43 over last 62 games, a lot of people forget they were tied for the division lead at 53-47 after 100 games. The big question this year is whether or not the Pirates will be able to take that next step and finish with a winning record, something they have failed to do in each of the past 19 seasons. The Pirates didn’t make a lot of moves, but they were able to add starter Erik Bedard, shortstop Clint Barmes, and veteran catcher Rod Barajas. Let’s take a look at the Pirates projected starting lineup, starting rotation, and closer situation for the 2012 season.
Projected Lineup
Rod Barajas (Catcher) – Barajas isn’t going to hit for a high average or drive in a ton of runs, but he provides the Pirates with some stability behind the plate. Even at the age of 36, Barajas will provide some nice power at the bottom of the order. He hit 16 home runs and drove in 47 runs in just 98 games with the Dodgers last year.
Garrett Jones (First Base) -The Pirates were really hoping they could bring back Derrek Lee, who they traded for midseason last year, but he wants to play for a team who has a shot at winning it all. That leaves Jones as the front-runner. In 148 games with the Pirates last season, Jones hit .243 with 16 home runs and 58 RBI.
Neil Walker (Second Base) -Walker suffered a bit of a sophomore slump last year. After hitting .296 with 12 home runs and 66 RBI in 110 games in 2010, he ended up hitting just .273 with 12 home runs and 83 RBI in 49 more games. The Pittsburgh native turned just 26 in September, so there is plenty of reason to be optimistic that he will bounce back in 2012.
Clint Barmes (Shortstop) – Barmes will help the Pirates out more on defense than he will with his bat. He hasn’t hit better than .245 over the last three seasons. He did hit 23 home runs with the Rockies in 2009, but finished with just 12 homers and 39 RBI in 123 games with the Astros last year.
Pedro Alvarez (Third Base) -Alvarez is coming off a extremely disappointing season. Everyone was buzzing about the potential of this kid after he hit 16 home runs and drove in 64 runs in 95 games as a 23-year-old rookie in 2010. Now he must prove he is even worth a spot on the roster after hitting just .191 with four homers and 19 RBI in 74 games last year.
Alex Presley (Left Field) – Pittsburgh is hoping that Presley can build off an impressive showing in 52 games last year. The 26-year-old lefty hit .298 with four home runs, 20 RBI and nine stolen bases. The plan is for him to take over full-time in left field, but if he struggles he will likely end up splitting time with Nate McLouth.
Andrew McCutchen (Center Field) – McCuthen is the face of the franchise after solidifying himself with an All-Star season in 2011. McCutchen hit .259 with 23 home runs, 89 RBI, and 23 stolen bases. Pretty impressive numbers considering the 25-year-old hit just .216 after the All-Star break. If Pittsburgh is going to contend in the Central, McCutchen must continue to grow into an elite player.
Jose Tabata (Right Field) – Tabata has struggled to stay healthy early in his career, but that didn’t stop the Pirates from extending his contract for another six years. The 23-year-old has hit .284 in 193 big league games. Pittsburgh is expecting a big jump in production after Tabata hit just four home runs with 21 RBI in 91 games last season.
Projected Rotation
Erik Bedard (LHP) – Bedard put up some solid numbers in 2011 after sitting out the entire 2010 season, but injuries are a huge concern here. He went just 5-9 in 24 starts, but posted a strong 3.62 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He has the stuff to be a 15 game winner if he can make 30 starts, but he hasn’t accomplished that since 2006.
Charlie Morton (RHP) -Morton appears to have finally turned the corner. His 10 wins and 3.83 ERA were both career-best, but he needs to show better control. His 77 walks resulted in a high 1.53 WHIP, something he must improve if he wants to stay at the top of the rotation.
James McDonald (RHP) – Much like Morton, McDonald has the stuff to be a legit starter in the National League, but a lack of control is holding him back. He went 9-9 with a 4.21 ERA, but posted a 1.49 WHIP thanks in large part to a whopping 78 walks.
Kevin Correia (RHP) – Correia earned a spot on the All-Star team by starting the season 10-6, but he faltered in the second half of the season. His 6.08 ERA in July and 8.41 ERA in August have lowered expectations going into 2012. Still figures to be good for at least 10 wins, a mark he has reached in each of the past three seasons.
Jeff Karstens (RHP) -Karstens relies on his pinpoint control as he doesn’t have the arm strength to blow away hitters. He is coming off his best season as a starter, as he went 9-9 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 26 starts. As long as he hits his spots he figures to remain an effective starter without an overpowering fastball.
Projected Closer
Joel Hanrahan (RHP) – Hanrahan was one of the biggest surprises of 2011. In his first season as a full-time closer he converted 40 of 44 save opportunities while posting an 1.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He’s considered a top-10 closer going into 2012 with several strong years ahead of him.
| 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates Odds | |
| World Series | +10000 |
| NL Pennant | +4000 |
| NL Central | +3000 |
| Total Regular Season Wins | O72.5 (-125) |
| U72.5 (-105) |
Over/Under Total Home Runs in the 2012 Regular Season
Andrew McCutchen – 25.5
Pedro Alvarez – 17.5
Garrett Jones – 15.5
Over/Under Total Steals in the 2012 Regular Season
Andrew McCutchen – 25.5
Over/Under Total Wins in the 2012 Regular Season
Erik Bedard – 8
Over/Under Total Saves in the 2012 Regular Season
Joel Hanrahan – 35.5
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