Pittsburgh at West Virginia Spread

Written by Jack Jones

The West Virginia Mountaineers host the Pittsburgh Panthers Friday in the annual Backyard Brawl. These two Big East rivals absolutely hate one another, and this is usually the biggest game of the year for both programs. That’s certainly the case heading into this one as both the Mountaineers and Panthers sit a half-game out of first place in the conference standings. WVU has won the last two meetings, including a 35-10 road victory last season. Geno Smith threw for 212 yards and three touchdowns for the Mountaineers, while Tino Sunseri threw for 284 yards and a score for Pittsburgh. The Panthers gave the ball away three times while not forcing a single turnover, which proved to be the difference.

Looking at the lines for Week 13, I find a spread of West Virginia -6.5 over Pittsburgh.

West Virginia

It has been somewhat of a disappointing season for the Mountaineers to this point. They came into the year as a preseason favorite to win the Big East, but now find themselves right in the middle of the pack. West Virginia (7-3, 3-2 Big East) still has a chance to win the conference despite their struggles. They stayed alive thanks to their biggest win of the season last time out, a 24-21 road victory at then-No. 23 Cincinnati. That was the first conference loss of the season for the Bearcats, who were in the driver’s seat to win the Big East before losing again to Rutgers last week.

The Mountaineers were certainly aided by an injury to Cincinnati’s star quarterback. Senior Zach Collaros went out in the second quarter with an ankle injury and never returned. Still, WVU led 17-7 at the half and was really in control of the game at that point. The Bearcats would fight back to take a 21-17 lead before Geno Smith directed a 10-play drive that ended in a Shawne Alston 1-yard touchdown run with 8:52 remaining. Cincinnati had one last chance to tie it, but Tony Miliano’s field goal was blocked by Eain Smith on the final play of the game. Smith threw for 372 yards and a touchdown to lead the Mountaineers.

Statistically speaking, West Virginia is one of the top teams in the country. The Mountaineers rank 13th in total offense (479.4 yards/game), including 6th in passing offense (362.1 yards/game). They are also 25th in total defense (339.1 yards/game). Smith is completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 3,497 yards with 24 touchdowns and five interceptions. Dustin Garrison has rushed for 600 yards and five touchdowns, while Alston has chipped in 298 yards and eight scores. Receivers Stedman Bailey (57 receptions, 1,037 yards, 10 TD) and Tavon Austin (72, 907, four TD) are Smith’s two favorite targets.

Pittsburgh

The Panthers are certainly a long shot to win the conference after losing star running back Ray Graham for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Graham had rushed for 964 yards and nine touchdowns before going down in a 35-20 home victory over Connecticut in Week 9. Give this team credit for continuing to battle. Pittsburgh (5-5, 3-2 Big East) Big would lose a heartbreaker at home 23-26 to then-No. 23 Cincinnati before going on the road and picking up a huge 21-14 win at Louisville. Like West Virginia, the Panthers have had a week off before this Backyard Brawl.

In their win over the Cardinals, Pittsburgh outgained Louisville 396-280 in a complete team effort. They set the tone for what kind of game it was going to be with an opening 12-play, 80-yard scoring drive that ended in a 1-yard touchdown run by Isaac Bennett. The Panthers opened the second half with another touchdown drive that resulted in a 17-yard touchdown pass from Tino Sunseri to Mike Shanahan. Sunseri went 16 of 22 passing for 196 yards and a touchdown, and he also scored on a 5-yard run with 1:53 remaining to put the game away. Despite not having Graham, the Panthers still managed to rush for 200 yards.

Pittsburgh ranks 77th in the FBS in total offense (371.7 yards/game) and 39th in total defense (355.6 yards/game). They give up 233.0 passing yards/game, and their secondary will certainly be tested against Smith and this WVU offense Friday. Sunseri is completing 63.7 percent of his passes for 2,037 yards with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for 146 yards and four scores. Zach Brown is their current leading rusher with 269 yards and four touchdowns. Devin Street (39 receptions, 572 yards, two TD) and Shanahan (30, 395, four TD) are their top playmakers at receiver.

Betting Trends

The Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points, but just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.

The Panthers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. However, Pitt is just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.

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