2011 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Odds

Written by Steve Janus

The No. 18 TCU Horned Frogs will take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl on Wednesday, December 21. The game will be played at Qualcomm Stadium with kickoff schedule1d for 8:00 ET on ESPN. This will be the Horned Frogs 11th straight trip to a bowl game under head coach Gary Patterson, while the Bulldogs go to their first bowl game under head coach Sonny Dykes and first since 2008.

Taking a look at the college football bowl lines, oddsmakers currently have TCU favored by 10.5-points over Louisiana Tech with the total sitting at 55.5 points.

Louisiana Tech:

The Bulldogs made some big strides in their second season under Dykes. After going just 5-7 in 2010, Louisiana Tech finished 8-4 overall and won the WAC with a 6-1 conference record. This team finished off the season with seven straight wins after starting out just 1-4. This team could easily have 10 wins, as they lost at Southern Miss 17-19, at home to Houston 34-35, and at Mississippi State 20-26 (overtime). They blew a 34-14 fourth quarter lead against Houston, who nearly finished undefeated.

The Bulldogs feature a very balanced offensive attack behind junior quarterback Colby Cameron, junior wide out Quinton Patton, and the running back duo of Lennon Creer and Hunter Lee.

Many Bulldogs fans are left wondering where this team would be had Cameron started the entire season. Louisiana Tech opened the season with true freshman Nick Isham under center, before Cameron eventually took over the job in the win over Utah State. Isham completed 60.3% of his attempts for 1,457 yards, but had just eight touchdowns to seven interceptions in six starts. Cameron would finish the year with 1,403 yards with 11 touchdowns to just two interceptions in 85 fewer attempts.

Patton was the favorite weapon of both quarterbacks, as he finished the year with 74 catches for 1,135 yards and 10 touchdowns. When the ball wasn’t headed in Patton’s direction, it usually ended up in the hands of senior Taulib Ikharo, who had 50 receptions for 496 yards and four scores.

Louisiana Tech can also beat you with their ground game, as Creer and Lee combined for 1,424 yards and 13 touchdowns. Creer led the way with 838 yards and nine scores. However, Creer suffered an ankle injury in the season finale against New Mexico State and is listed as questionable for the game against TCU.

The Bulldogs will go up against a pretty solid TCU defense that finished 28th against the run (126.1 ypg) and 55th against the pass (220.3 ypg).

TCU:

After finishing 2010 with a perfect 13-0 record, many expected the Horned Frogs to take a big step back in 2011 with the loss of starting quarterback Andy Dalton and Boise State entering into the Mountain West Conference. It looked like that might hold true after a 48-50 loss at Baylor to open the season, but the Horned Frogs would go on to win 10 of their final 11 games, including a stunning 36-35 win at Boise State. They finished a perfect 7-0 in conference play, running their Mountain West win streak to 25 games.

Offensively the Bulldogs didn’t miss a beat without Dalton at quarterback. Sophomore Casey Pachall was just as good as Dalton was in his final season. Last year Dalton completed 66.1% of his passes for 2,857 yards with 27 touchdowns to just six interceptions, Pachall connected on 67.8% of his attempts for 2,715 yards with 24 touchdowns to just six interceptions.

The passing attack isn’t even the strong part of this offense. TCU finished 20th in the country with an average of 210.2 ypg on the ground. They feature a trio of talented running backs. Waymon James finished with 824 yards and six touchdowns, Matthew Tucker rushed for 684 yards and a team-high 11 touchdowns, and Ed Wesley added 649 yards and five scores.

As good as the Horned Frogs rushing attack has been, they may have to rely more on Pachall and the passing attack against Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are a stingy 24th against the run (122.2 ypg), but are 95th against the pass (252.7 ypg).

Betting Trends:

Louisiana Tech is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

TCU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite.

Predicted Score: TCU 33, Louisiana Tech 22

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this college football bowl season.

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