2011 Purdue Football Predictions
Written by Patrick Webb
Purdue heads into 2011 optimistic that they can build from a 4-8 season last year to bowl eligibility this season. The Boilermakers suffered significant injuries at nearly every skill position last year and are hoping the young players thrown into the fire in 2010 will see the game slow down for them and give them more poise.
Purdue returns quarterback Robert Marve, who started four games last year before going down for the season with an ACL injury, as well as sophomore Rob Henry, who started as a freshman after Marve went down. Henry will face a strong push from Marve for the job in the fall as Marve is more of a pure passer. Henry is a very good runner, leading the Boilermakers in rushing with 547 yards and 4 TDs.
The Boilermakers will need to replace Dan Dierking, Keith Carlos and Al-Terek McBurse, who all played at tailback at some point last season. This could be a position of strength for Purdue in 2011 with the return of the talented Ralph Bolden from an ACL injury. They are also expecting contributions from incoming junior college transfer Akeem Shavers, who averaged 9 yards a carry last season and participated in the spring.
At receiver the Boilers return Antavian Edison, who caught 32 passes and 4 TDs. Justin Siller, a former QB/WR (suspension last season), will devote himself full-time to WR and will be joined by O.J. Ross, who started 4 of the 8 games he played in last season. TE Gabe Holmes also has the ability to make an impact in the passing game as he tries to fill the shoes of Kyle Adams, who lead the team with 36 receptions last year. Overall, Purdue is looking to replace 107 receptions and 6 TDs from last season’s receiving corps, but with steadier QB play this unit should improve greatly on last season’s numbers.
On the offensive line Purdue returns Dennis Kelly at left tackle, who has been steady as a two-year full-time starter, along with three other veterans on the line: Peters Drey, Ken Plue, and Nick Mondek. Rick Schmeig and James Sheperd are veterans pushing for time at the guard spots, including one possibly replacing Plue. Despite the inexperience and constant shuffling on offense last season this unit managed to help runners to 4.4 ypc and surrendered only 18 sacks.
The Defense returns nine starters including the entire secondary. The loss of Ryan Kerrigan leaves a gaping hole at one defensive end spot. DE Robert Macri has decent size and managed to make 17 tackles and 2 TFL in limited action last season. He will be joined by returners Gerald Gooden, and DTs Kawaan Short and Bruce Gaston on the defensive line. Short had 6 sacks from the DT position last year and is entering his third season as a starter. Dwayne Beckford and Joe Holland return at linebacker, who combined for 157 tackles last season. Both are experienced and can help break in Will Lucas, who the staff is high on coming into the 2011 season.
The strength of Purdue’s defense will be the secondary with solid corners in Josh Johnson and Ricardo Allen, plus depth provided by Charlton Williams. Both safeties return including SS Logan Link, who came out of nowhere to lead the team in tackles last season. FS Albert Evans is looking to build on his solid first year of starting.
The specialists Carson Wiggs (PK 15-19 on field goals, long of 52) and P Cody Webster (47 punts/ 36.0 net yards per punt) both return. Wiggs handled some of the punting last season, but will be able to focus on his place kicking as Webster is expected to handle the punting duties full-time. Purdue needs to add some punch in the return game and should improve with incoming freshman Raheem Mostert, who could lead both the kick and punt return units this season.
The Boilermakers had a season turnover ratio of -6 last season, but should be more consistent offensively in 2011. That should put the defense in more positive situations this coming season. They boast a lot of experience on both sides of the line of scrimmage and their tailback situation can’t help but be more reliable than last season. The Defense returns nine regular starters and several other players with experience.
Purdue has a bye in the fourth week of the season and will play 8 straight conference games along with a tough non-conference opponent in Notre Dame. For a team that fought the injury bug hard last season, this schedule is doing them very little favors.
Schedule Analysis: Purdue opens the season with 4 out of 5 games at home, including a tough match up hosting Notre Dame following three games against lesser competition and a bye. The Boilers open Big Ten play with Minnesota at home, followed by a tough stretch that begins with a roadie at Penn State, Illinois at home, road games at Michigan and Wisconsin, and back-to-back home games with Ohio State and Iowa. Indiana closes out the season for the Boilermakers. I expect Purdue to win 3 of their non-conference games and they should beat Minnesota and Indiana in conference play, but the 6th win needed for bowl eligibility could be tough to come by. The Boilers closed last season with 6 straight losses, including four teams (Ohios State, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan) they face again this year. Purdue will likely be an underdog in six of eight Big Ten games and seven of their eleven games overall.
Final Record Prediction: 5-7 Overall (2-6 Big Ten – 5th in Leaders Division)
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