Purdue at Michigan NCAA Football Lines
Written November 6, 2009 by Hector Garza
Michigan (5-4) started off the season with a sizzling 4-0 record, but has since cooled off dropping 4 of their last 5 games and falling to almost last in the Big Ten with a 1-4 conference record. They’re hoping to pull out a win against another bottom tier team when they welcome Purdue (3-6) to the Big House this Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET. The Boilermakers are the 6 point underdogs according to our NCAA football betting lines and are looking for some redemption after a 37-0 throttling they took from Wisconsin.
The Purdue offense was almost non existent last week in the shutout against the Badgers. They managed only 141 total yards, largely in part to 3 turnovers and 60 rushing yards. It’s a far cry from the team that upset then #7 Ohio State. As a whole, the offense demands more respect averaging 24.5 ppg on an average of 372 yards per contest. QB Joey Elliott has thrown for over 2000 yards for 14 td’s, with Keith Smith being his primary target. He’s been a great receiver that’s hauled in 60 passes for 779 and 4 td’s. RB Ralph Bolden tops out the all runners with 757 yards and 5 td’s.
Wisconsin straight bullied the Boilermakers stop unit last week, gashing them for 266 yards and 3 td’s on the ground alone. That has been a weak point all year, as they’ve allowed almost 168.4 ypg and 21 of their 27 td’s. While stopping the run has been a problem, the defense has done a good job forcing turnovers, with a total of 18. DE Ryan Kerrigan has been excellent pressuring the QB, amassing 9 sacks on the year. The unit as a whole has 24.
The Wolverines are led by QB Tate Forcier, a freshman who started off strong but has struggled lately. On the year he’s thrown for over 1400 yards and 9 td’s, but failed to throw one last week in a loss to Illinois. He’s also a threat with his legs, as he’s 4th on the team with 214 yards and 2 td’s. Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor have helped lead Michigan to a 207.6 ypg clip on the ground, accounting for 9 td’s and 787 yards together. 23 of the 34 td’s scored have been by running the football.
While the offense has been scoring points, the defense has been allowing almost as many. Last week they gave up 500 yards to Illinois in a 35-10 loss after leading 13-6 at half. On top of giving up 382 ypg, the unit hasn’t been able to force turnovers, tallying only 11 through 9 games. Michigan will have a problem against Purdue’s running attack, as they’re giving up over 160 yards per contest and were gashed for 377 last week alone! Brandon Graham has been the one shining star with his 6.5 sacks and 17 TFL’s.
The achilles heel for both of these teams has been turnovers. Through 9 games, Purdue has committed 26 turnovers to Michigan’s 21. Both offenses can put up points, it will just be a question of who can limit their mistakes and which defense will implode the least. Michigan does have the home field advantage where they’ve won 5 of their 6 games, and they’re playing to become bowl eligible, which gives them the slight edge and the win. If you’re interested in betting college football, BetUs currently has a $500 Bonus.
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