Purdue at Michigan Line

Written by Steve Janus

The No. 18 Michigan Wolverines will look to get back on track when they host the Purdue Boilermakers this Saturday in Big Ten play. The Wolverines suffered their first loss of the season their last time out, losing 28-14 at Michigan State. Michigan will face a Purdue team that just upset then No. 23 Illinois 21-14 at home last week. The Wolverines won 27-16 at Purdue a season ago, but the Boilermakers had won each of the previous two meetings, including a 38-36 win at Michigan in 2009.

Taking a look at the week 9 college football lines, oddsmakers currently have Michigan favored by 13.5-points over Purdue with the total set at 52.5 points.

Purdue Boilermakers:

After getting blown out by Notre Dame 38-10 on their home field, the Boilermakers have really played some solid football. They dominated Minnesota 45-17, played Penn State extremely close on the road (23-18), and just upset Illinois last week.

The Boilermakers have got things turned around thanks to a stingy defense. Purdue was torched for 554 total yards of offense in the loss to Notre Dame, but have allowed just 315 on average over their last three games.

The defense will be counted on for another big performance against the Wolverines. The Boilermakers have to make sure they don’t allow Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson to beat them. They did a pretty good job of that last year, holding Robinson to just 68 yards rushing while forcing him into four turnovers.

Caleb TerBush is coming off a big time performance against Illinois, completing 16 of 25 for 178 yards and two touchdowns. He is going to have an even better game if the Boilermakers are going to pull off another upset. Purdue managed just 256 yards against the Wolverines a year ago, and this is much better Michigan defense than the one from last year.

Michigan Wolverines:

This is a big game for the Wolverines. They have started out strong each of the last two years, but failed to finish strong. How they respond after such a disappointing loss to instate rival Michigan State will tell us a lot about where this team is headed over the final weeks of the season. I believe that the bye week will really benefit Michigan. Head coach Brady Hoke has had plenty of time to regain the focus of his players and put together a strong game plan for the Boilermakers.

Michigan scored a season low 14-points on just 250 yards of total offense. in their loss to Michigan State. That was a direct result of the Spartans taking away the running game of quarterback Denard Robinson. The junior was held to 42 yards on 18 attempts. The only other game where Robinson failed to rush for at least 100 yards was a 58-0 beating of Minnesota. That forced Robinson to throw the ball, something he isn’t very good at. He finished the game 9 of 24 for 123 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

Robinson has just 11 passing touchdowns to 10 interceptions on the season. When he has to throw the ball this offense will struggle to move the football. While Purdue held Robinson in check last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t have a big game. Purdue gave up 287 wrushing yards to Notre Dame and 182 to Penn State.

Betting Trends:

Purdue is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Michigan is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in college football.

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