Purdue at Northwestern

Written by Steve Janus

This Saturday the Northwestern Wildcats will look remain undefeated when they host the Purdue Boilermakers in Big 10 action. The Wildcats got a scare last week against Minnesota, as they pulled off a 29-28 win on the road. The Boilermakers suffered their second loss of the season against Toledo in their last game, but should be well rested as they were not in action last week. The Wildcats have had some pretty good success against the Boilermakers lately, as they have won four of the last six meetings, including 27-21 win last year after falling behind 21-3. If you are thinking about betting on the game this weekend, the current college football odds have the Wildcats favored by 9.5-points over the Boilermakers at home.

Purdue (2-2, 0-0 Big Ten): The Boilermakers haven’t looked as bad as I thought they would to start the season, as both their losses have only been by 11 points. After scoring just 12 points in the season opener against Notre Dame, the Boilermakers have looked pretty good on offense, scoring at least 20 points in each of their last three games. While Purdue has struggled to get the passing game going, they have done a pretty good job on the ground, as they average 188 yards a game. The defense on the other hand has struggled, and while they have allowed just 22 points a game so far, that total is likely to increase quite a bit once they get going with their Big Ten schedule.

In their last game against Toledo, Purdue really got off to a slow start, as they trailed 17-0 at half. The Boilermakers made a game out of it with 17 third quarter points, but managed just three points in the final period. The Boilermakers had another fine day running the ball, as they finished with 220 yards on the ground, as five different players finished with at least 30 yards rushing. Still if the Boilermakers are going to pull off the upset this week against Northwestern, they are going to need more out of the passing game, as the Wildcats have been pretty good against the run so far this season.

Northwestern (5-0, 1-0 Big Ten): Don’t get me wrong the Wildcats are a pretty solid football team, but they are not going to threat for the Big Ten title, as their schedule has been very easy to start the season. For a BCS team to be undefeated after five games and not rated in the top 25, that should tell you what the experts think of their opponents so far this season.

Quarterback Dan Persa is the reason the Wildcats have yet to have a slip up this season, as he not only leads the Wildcats with 1,358 yards and 10 touchdowns through the air, but he is also the leading rusher with 271 yards and two scores. That just goes to show you how much the Wildcat running backs have struggled so far this season. Considering the competition the defense has played pretty well so far this season, and should be able to lead Northwestern to their sixth straight win this Saturday.

Looking at the Odds: Even though I think the Wildcats are going to end up winning this game, I think the right bet is on the Boilermakers +9.5 in this one, as I have not been that impressed with Northwestern up to this point. Purdue has played the Wildcats well over the last five years, going 2-3 with two of their losses coming by six points or less. The Wildcats are just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite. My final score prediction is Northwestern 31, Purdue 24.

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