Purdue vs Connecticut

Written by Anthony Moretti

purdue-connecticut-sweet-sixteen-predictions-032409 Connecticut faces Purdue as one of the two Sweet 16 match ups in the West Region of the men’s 2009 NCAA Tournament. At the start of the tournament the Huskies were considered the weakest of the four No. 1 seeds, but that sentiment may have changed after blowout wins over Tennessee Chattanooga and Texas A&M. The Purdue Boilermakers haven’t had it quite so easy with a 5-point win over Northern Iowa in the first round and a 2-point victory against Washington in the second. Connecticut and Purdue play this Thursday, March 27th at 7:07 PM EST. Looking at the NCAA basketball lines for Thursday the Huskies are favored by 6.5 points over Purdue and the total is set around 134.5 points.

Connecticut Huskies: UConn averaged 97.5 points per game and won by a combined 82 points in their two first-round games of the tournament. The Huskies will likely have a more difficult game on Thursday against a stingy Purdue defense, but there is not a doubt in my mind that they have the talent to run away with this game as well. UConn’s wins in the first two rounds gave the Huskies a much-needed boost in confidence after a so-so finish to their regular season. Connecticut can win this game if they continue to do what they’ve been doing on offense. They don’t necessarily need to score as many points as they did in the first two rounds, but they need to have consistent output in what may shape up to be a much lower-paced game than their previous two. Defensively the Huskies should be strong against Purdue with Hasheem Thabeet in the paint. Thabeet needs to stay out of early foul trouble because when he is on the court Connecticut is very difficult to beat.

Purdue Boilermakers: The Boilermakers were the only No. 5 seed in the tournament to avoid an opening-round upset as Utah, Florida State, and Illinois all fell to their 12th seeded opponents. Purdue isn’t particularly strong on offense, scoring just 61 points in their first round game and 76 points in their second round game, but their defense can keep them in this game. They’ll need to play nearly flawlessly on both ends of the court if UConn plays at all like they did in the first two rounds, but keeping the tempo of the game down could certainly work in the Boilers’ favor. They will need center JaJuan Johnson to stay out of foul trouble against Thabeet as Johnson is their best option to defend him. In addition to finding a way to score against and defend Thabeet, Purdue will need outstanding play from E’waun Moore and Robbie Hummel. Hummel hurt his shoulder in the Boilermaker’s win over Washington, and while he should be fine, it might be something to keep an eye on as the game wears on.

It’s hard to judge UConn based on their first two performances in the tournament. They were dominating for sure, but can that trend really continue into the Sweet 16? I’ve supported Purdue in the first two rounds of this tournament, but I feel like this is where their dance comes to an end. The confidence that the Huskies are playing with, coupled with the fact that they have more talent on the floor makes UConn a strong pick for me on Thursday.

Predicted Score: Connecticut Huskies 78, Purdue Boilermakers 66

Play on: UConn -6.5, Purdue/UConn OVER 134.5

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