2011 Pure Michigan 400 Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
Last week at the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen, Marcos Ambrose captured his first Sprint Cup Series victory. It was Abrose’s 105th start on the Sprint Cup Series. It’s unlikely Ambrose will be able to match that win with another one this week, as the series heads to Michigan International Speedway for the 2011 Pure Michigan 400. It is the second of two races held on this track, as the Cup series stopped here earlier this season for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 in June.
With just four races left on the schedule in the field is cut to 12 for the Chase for the Cup, this is a very important race for a number of drivers this week. One of them is Denny Hamlin, who won the early race on this track. While fans are use to seeing Hamlin race well at Michigan, his lack of success on the other tracks this season has been a big surprise. If the Chase were to start this week, Hamlin would barely make the cut because of his win here at Michigan. The defending champ of the Pure Michigan 400 (CARFAX 400 in 2010) is Kevin Harvick, who doesn’t have much to sweat sitting in 4th place in the points standings.
For those of you thinking about placing a bet on the race this weekend, here is a look at the three drivers I feel have the best shot at taking home the checkered flag.
Carl Edwards (+700) – Edwards comfortably sits in 2nd place in the points standings, but that doesn’t mean the No. 99 car won’t be challenging for the top spot this week. Edwards may have just one win on the season, but he has routinely been near the front of the pack with 10 top five finishes. What really makes Edwards a strong play this week, is the fact that he has won trice at Michigan in his career and holds the best average finish at Michigan in the field at 6.2. Edwards has finished 7th or better in nine of his last 10 starts on this track, and is clearly my favorite to win this week.
Matt Kenseth (+1200) – The No. 17 car isn’t getting the respect he deserves from the oddsmakers at +1200. Kenseth holds the second best average at Michigan with an average finish of 9.5. He also has two career wins at this track, and was the runner-up earlier this season at the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400. Kenseth is another driver that doesn’t have a lot to worry about this week, as he sits in 5th in the points standings. If you are looking for a great driver with excellent value, Kenseth is the one you want.
Greg Biffle (+2000) – My final pick this week goes on a long shot that has a great chance of surprising the field and making his way to victory lane. Biffle comes into the race with just one top five finish in 2011, but his track record at Michigan is well worth the risk at +2000. Biffle has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four starts on this track, and has won this race twice before in his career. The No. 16 car is definitely worth the risk!
Compete Pure Michigan 400 Odds
| AJ Allmendinger | +5000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +2500 |
| Brian Vickers | +5000 |
| Carl Edwards | +700 |
| Clint Bowyer | +3000 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | +2500 |
| David Ragan | +4000 |
| David Reutimann | +5000 |
| Denny Hamlin | +800 |
| Greg Biffle | +2000 |
| Jamie McMurray | +5000 |
| Jeff Burton | +5000 |
| Jeff Gordon | +800 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +700 |
| Joey Logano | +3000 |
| Juan Pablo Montoya | +4000 |
| Kasey Kahne | +3000 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1200 |
| Kurt Busch | +800 |
| Kyle Busch | +800 |
| Marcos Ambrose | +8000 |
| Mark Martin | +5000 |
| Martin Truex Jr | +4000 |
| Matt Kenseth | +1200 |
| Paul Menard | +5000 |
| Regan Smith | +8000 |
| Ryan Newman | +3000 |
| Tony Stewart | +1200 |
| Trevor Bayne | +8000 |
| Field (Any Other Driver) | +8000 |
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