Rams Cowboys Odds

Written by Jack Jones

Two teams in desperate need of a win square off Sunday afternoon as the St. Louis Rams visit the Dallas Cowboys. This won’t be the only big game taking place in Arlington Sunday. The Texas Rangers will be hosting the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 4 of the World Series as well, so that game will certainly get most of the attention. This will be the third meeting between the Rams and Cowboys since 2006, with St. Louis actually winning twice despite being at least a 9-point underdog in all three. They beat Dallas 34-14 at home in their most recent meeting in 2008.

Taking a look at the NFL lines for Week 7, I find a spread of Dallas -13 over St. Louis and a total set of 43 points.

Dallas

The Cowboys have been on the losing end of several close games this season due to their inability to close in the fourth quarter. Dallas (2-3, 1-1 home) has seen all five of their games decided by four points or less, and they’ve blown fourth-quarter leads in all three of their losses. While their struggles late in games is a huge concern, their list of injuries heading into this one may be even more of a pressing issue.

Leading rusher Felix Jones is out with an ankle sprain, meaning rookie DeMarco Murray will have to take his place. Also, left guard Bill Nagy is out with a broken angle. He was replaced last week by rookie Kevin Kowalski in a 20-16 loss to the New England Patriots. The Cowboys watched Tom Brady and company march down the field and steal the game away from them with an 8-yard touchdown pass to Aaron Hernandez with only 22 seconds remaining.

Laurent Robinson came over from the Rams after being let go by St. Louis after the preseason. He has been a pleasant surprise with 208 receiving yards in three games for Dallas. The Cowboys rank 7th in the league in total offense (409.6 yards/game) and 5th in total defense (307.6 yards/game). Reigning NFL sack leader DeMarcus Ware has seven sacks this season, which is the third-most in the league. One area Dallas needs to improve is their red-zone production. They rank 30th in the NFL in touchdown efficiency inside the 20, crossing the goal line on just 33.3 percent of their opportunities.

St. Louis

The only team that has been worse in the red zone than Dallas is the Cardinals. They are converting just 25.0 percent of their trips inside the 20 into touchdowns. St. Louis (0-5, 0-2 away) has started winless through their first five games for the second time in three years under head coach Steve Spagnuolo. Like Dallas, they have a plethora of injury concerns.

Sam Bradford is in a walking boot with a high ankle sprain, and his status for Sunday is uncertain. He has been sacked and NFL-high 21 times, and veteran A.J. Feeley will take Bradford’s place if he cannot go. Also, the status of offensive tackle Rodger Saffold and Cadillac Williams is uncertain, though both practiced Wednesday. Whoever is under center will have the luxury of throwing the ball to Brandon Lloyd, who the Rams acquired from the Denver Broncos for a conditional 2012 draft pick. Plus, wideout Mark Clayton was taken off the PUP and returned to practice Wednesday as well.

The Rams rank 25th in the league in total offense (308.4 yards/game) and dead last in scoring (9.8 points/game). Their defense has been even worse. St. Louis ranks 30th in total defense (403.4 yards/game) and will have their hands full with this potent Dallas offense. They did hold Green Bay in check last week in a 24-3 loss to the Packers. Steven Jackson ran for a season-high 96 yards in that game, but he could struggle against the league’s top-ranked run defense Sunday. The Cowboys only give up 69.6 yards per game on the ground.

Betting Trends

The Rams are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or more, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. St. Louis is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record.

The Cowboys are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. However, Dallas is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games overall, and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.

Looking for NFL winners this weekend? Look no further than expert handicapper Jack Jones and his award-winning NFL selections.

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