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Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots NFL Odds

Written October 3, 2009 by Rock Henderson

A possible AFC Championship preview could be in store when the 3-0 Baltimore Ravens travel to New England to take on the 2-1 Patriots. The Ravens have used a balanced attack to secure their three wins including a 30-26 victory at San Diego. Second year QB Joe Flacco has taken reign of the Raven offense and put up Pro Bowl type numbers. Gone are the days of the Baltimore running the ball and relying on their defense to win ball games. New England returned to championship form last week after their dismal performance against the Jets in a 26-10 win against Atlanta. Tom Brady and the Patriot offense have struggled to score points, but New England’s defense has been a bright spot. NFL odds makers are favoring the Patriots by 1.5 points at home. The total for the game sits at 44.5 points.

Baltimore has gone through quite the transformation in a year. Gone are the days of 10-7 wins where Ed Reed would score the only touchdown by returning a fumble for a score. Joe Flacco has shredded opposing defenses for 839 yards and six touchdowns through three games. The Ravens aren’t completely pass happy though as Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have provided a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield. The pair have combined for almost 400 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. Flacco has also benefited from Derrick Mason coming out of retirement to rejoin the team as he has caught 12 passes for almost 200 yards. Baltimore has scored at least 30 points in each game and are holding opponents to a little over 17 per game. Coach John Harbaugh has done a nice job opening up the offense so the defense isn’t under constant pressure to stop the opposition. A win at New England will definitely send a message to the AFC that the Ravens are the team to beat on the road to Miami.

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The Patriots are still searching for an identity on the offensive side of the ball after averaging 20 points in their first three games. A strong running attack aided their victory against Atlanta as Fred Taylor reached the goal line twice. It has only been two years since Tom Brady tossed an NFL record 50 touchdown passes, but the veteran has only amassed three scores through the air in 2009. To be fair, Brady is coming off of knee surgery and has a couple new receivers that he is likely still getting familiar with. Not having Wes Welker in the slot also hampers the passing game built on timing. The defensive side of the ball was thought to be a weakness before the season started after Teddy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison retired along with longtime Patriot LB Mike Vrabel being released. Their best defensive player, LB Jerod Mayo, suffered a season ending injury but Belichick has done a nice job filling the holes left by their departures.

Baltimore is 3-0 ATS and can win ball games in multiple ways with the team they have built. New England is at home and still has the best QB in the league though. I like the home team here if you can get the Patriots just under a field goal. The Ravens are a tough team, but the Pats have much more to prove in this match-up. Play: New England -1.5

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