Ravens Patriots Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Sunday the New England Patriots will host the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. The game is scheduled for 3:00ET and will be televised nationally on CBS. Both teams took advantage of their bye week and went on to win their home divisional game. The Ravens held on for a 20-13 win over the Texans, while the Patriots completely dominated the Broncos 45-10. This will be fourth time these two teams have met in Foxboro since the 2009 season. While New England has won two of three, the Ravens 33-14 win came in the playoffs.

Taking a look at the NFL playoff lines, oddsmakers currently have the Patriots favored by 7-points over the Ravens with the total set at 50.5 points.

Baltimore Ravens:

Despite jumping out to a 17-3 lead by the end of the first quarter, the Ravens struggled to put away the Texans. Baltimore had a chance to really put the game away, but a failed 4th and goal from the 1-yard line kept Houston within striking distance. While the offense slowed down drastically after a great start, Baltimore’s defense stepped up and made the big play when it was needed. The Ravens intercepted rookie T.J. Yates three times and forced four turnovers in all.

One thing a lot of people will overlook is how disciplined the Ravens were in that game. They didn’t turn the ball over once or commit a single penalty the entire game. The win secured a perfect 9-0 record at home for Baltimore. Now they must prove they can win on the road, something they struggled with during the regular season. Baltimore went just 4-4 away from home, which included head shaking losses to the Titans, Jaguars, Seahawks, and Chargers.

While the Ravens mentality of defense and protecting the football has got them this far, some question whether or not they will be able to win this game on defense alone. The way New England is playing offensively, Baltimore is going to have to score 20+ to win this game.

I think a lot of people are overreacting to the Patriot’s defensive performance against Denver, It should come as no surprise that Bill Belichick devised a game plan that shut down a one-dimensional offense, especially when that one dimension is running the football. New England ranked 31st in the league against the pass, giving up 293.9 ypg, and I think Joe Flacco and the Ravens receivers are in for a big day offensively.

New England Patriot:

The Patriots came out and looked as sharp as they have all season in their win over the Broncos. Tom Brady completed 26 of 34 attempts for 363 yards and six touchdowns. Three of those touchdowns tosses went to tight end Rob Gronkowski, who finished up the game with 10 catches for 145 yards. Defensively the Patriots held the Broncos to jsut 252 yards of total offense, allowing Tim Tebow to complete just 9 of 26 attempts.

If you remember back to the regular season, the Patriots beat the Broncos 41-23 in a game you could tell New England really wanted to win. However, that next week they came out extremely flat against the Dolphins. They were able to rally from a 0-17 halftime deficit to win the game 27-24. A lot of people are wondering if the Ravens can keep up with New England, but I question whether or not the Patriots offense can attack a defense as good as Baltimore’s.

The Ravens finished 4th in the NFL against the pass (196.3 ypg) and 2nd against the run (92.6 ypg). There is no denying that the New England can move the ball without a running game, whether or not Brady can avoid turning the ball over will likely determine the outcome of this game. The Patriots haven’t scored more than 27 points in their last three games against the Ravens and their two wins came by a combined 9-points.

Betting Trends:

Baltimore is 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

New England is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff home games.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this weekend!

Comments

Got something to say?