Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Game 4 MLB Predictions & Baseball Odds

Written October 14, 2008 by Jack Jones

The Boston Red Sox are reeling after Monday’s home loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, and now will rely on knuckleballer Tim Wakefield to get them back on track. This will be Wakefield’s first start of the postseason and he’ll be facing Andy Sonnanstine. Boston is a -145 favorite over Tampa Bay on Tuesday with the total set at 9. Check our baseball odds page for the latest numbers for top sportsbooks.

Last night the Rays got to Jon Lester early, scoring five early runs before finishing the Red Sox off with four in the last couple of innings for a 9-1 win. Tampa is now 11-9 against the Red Sox this season and leads the series 2-1. The Rays have won 9 of 12 overall in this series and three out of four at Fenway Park.

The Rays are hot right win, winning six of their last eight, including eight of nine against the AL East. Tampa bay is on a 35-16 run against right-handed starters. The Red Sox though are 23-9 in their last 32 playoff games and 12-4 in their last 16 home postseason contests. The team is 64-28 at Fenway in their last 92 games, 17-5 coming off a loss, and 36-16 when Wakefield pitches in front of his home crowd.

Sure, the Rays have had some recent success in Boston, but had previously lost 45 of 54 and the home team won the first 12 games this season played between the two clubs.

The veteran Wakefield hasn’t pitched an inning since September 28th. That was a five inning, no walk, no run, and two hit performance against the New York Yankees. He had gotten hit pretty hard in his two previous outings, one of which was against Tampa Bay in which he gave up six runs in 2 1/3 innings. Over the last year the Red Sox are 0-4 when Wake takes the mound against the Rays, but over his career the right-hander is 19-5 with a 3.32 ERA against Tampa. At home Wakefield has been pretty dominate with Boston having a 10-4 team record in his starts. You can bet Boston at Sportsbook.com at -143 and get a 100% win bonus on your first winning wager.

Sonnanstine got his first postseason start a little over a week ago when the Rays beat the Chicago White Sox 6-2 to win the ALDS. He gave up just two runs and three hits in 5 2/3 innings which pushed his streak of starts with two earned runs or fewer to four out of five. However, his ERA on the road this year is slightly higher at 4.29.

Sonnanstine has two starts this year against the Red Sox, both wins by Tampa, in which he gave up a single unearned run in each contest. Over the 13 innings he has 12 strikeouts while giving up just seven hits and two walks. The best odds on Tampa are +133 at Bookmaker.

This is a tale of two generations. Sonnanstine is a typical Ray, he’ll be making his second career postseason start while Wakefield is more like the rest of the Red Sox, playoff tested. He has 17 games and 10 starts under his belt.

Sonnanstine pitched to the under in four out of his last five, and Wakefield has gone under in six of his last eight against Tampa and four out of his last five in Boston.

Some over trends to consider, Boston is 6-2-1 going over at home in the playoffs, 6-2-2 over in the ALCS, including going over in the last five ALCS at Fenway. Tampa has gone over in 20 of their last 27 against right-handed starters.

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