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Red Sox & Angels NLDS Predictions

Written October 8, 2009 by Anthony Moretti

The Boston Red Sox (95-67) and Los Angeles Angels (97-65) will meet in the postseason for the third consecutive year and fourth time in the last six seasons when they kick off their American League Division Series on Thursday at 9:30 PM ET. This in-depth series preview will give avid MLB betting pundits the insight they need to make winning wagers throughout the entirety of what promises to be a thrilling first-round series showdown. Of course if you need a little help with your baseball handicapping you can always pick up a premium package of MLB picks from our experts. If you plan on getting in on the action, why not take advantage of the $500 in FREE bonus money offered to our readers by BetUS! With the first pitch for this series a mere matter of hours away, let me get started.

Red Sox

With Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, Boston may have the best four-deep starting rotation in the entire postseason.

Angels

John Lackey, Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero, and Chone Figgins will all be free agents following this postseason and the Angels realize their time to strike is now. Los Angeles also has a solid four-man starting rotation even if they don’t get nearly as much press as their counterparts in this series.

Offense

The Los Angeles Angels led all of baseball in team batting average, hitting a robust .285 this season while smacking 173 team home runs. The Red Sox ranked fourth in team batting average, hitting a collective .269 while bashing 212 home runs, also fourth in all of baseball.

The Angels had two players bat over .300 during the regular season (Erik Aybar, Kendry Morales) while three more players hit over .290 (Torii Hunter, Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu). Morales and Abreu each drove in over 100 runs. L.A. had just one player hit over 30 home runs (Morales) while three others hit at least 20 home runs (Mike Napoli, Hunter, Juan Rivera).

One thing that should also be mentioned is the fact that the Angels had three players, (Macier Izturis, Vladimir Guerrero and Howie Kendrick) miss time with injuries that limited them to approximately 380 at-bats, but all hit over .290 while driving in at least 50 runs.

Boston Red Sox had three players (Kevin Youkilis, Victor Martinez, Jacoby Ellsbury) bat over .300 this season but had just one 30-home run hitter (Jason Bay) and two players drive in 100 runs or more (Martinez, Bay), although two more players (Youkilis, David Ortiz) drove in over 90 runs while four more players hit at least 23 home runs (Youkilis, Martinez, J.D. Drew, Ortiz).

Edge: Even

Defense

The Red Sox ranked third in the AL and tied for ninth overall in runs allowed per game (4.5) while L.A. gave up an average of 4.7 runs per contest. Boston also gave up 9.2 hits and 3.3 walks per game while the Angels allowed 9.4 hits and 3.2 walks per contest. Boston recorded 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings while L.A. averaged 6.6 K’s per game.

Edge: Even

Starting Pitching

The Red Sox ranked 16th in team ERA (4.34) while L.A. checked in at 20th (4.43 ERA). Boston held opposing hitters to a .267 batting average and .335 on-base percentage while giving up 167 total home runs. L.A. allowed opposing hitters to compile a .272 batting average and .338 on-base percentage while giving up 180 total home runs.

Boston had three double digit winners (Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, but no starter with an ERA under 3.00. The Angels had five double-digit winners this season, (Jered Weaver, John Lackey, Joe Saunders, Matt Palmer, Scott Kazmir) but like the Red Sox, none with an ERA under 3.00.

Edge: L.A.

Bullpen

The Red Sox ranked eight in the majors in bullpen ERA (3.80) while L.A. ranked 23rd in this category with an unimpressive 4.49 ERA. Boston’s relief pitchers recorded a solid 27-17 record while limiting opposing hitters to a .252 batting average and giving up 51 home runs. The Angels’ relief pitchers allowed opposing hitters to record a .270 batting average while allowing 52 home runs.

Edge: Boston

Analysis

The MLB odds show that the team favored to win this series is Boston at -135. While the Angels are catching underdog value at +105. While the Los Angeles Angels won the regular season series against the Red Sox 5-4, predicting the outcome of this series really boils down to which team you like more as these two ballclubs are about as evenly matched as two teams could possibly be.

Despite the fact that they’ve struggled mightily to beat the Red Sox in the postseason, Boston’s starting rotation is healthy for the first time in months, I am going to take the Los Angeles Angels to snap out of their dismal 1-9 postseason funk against the Red Sox if, for no other reason, than the fact that they are just too talented to continue to wallow in postseason futility.

Another factor that could come into play is the fact that Boston struggled mightily on the road this season, going an unimpressive 39- 42 in the regular season while L.A. compiled a solid 49-32 home record.

I think the addition of veteran outfielder Bobby Abreu may also be the key to an L.A. series victory. The sweet-swinging lefty is the only player in the major leagues besides Albert Pujols to drive in at least 100 runs in each of the last seven seasons.

I also think the Red Sox will have trouble with gifted switch-hitting first baseman Kendry Morales, who had a breakout season this year and absolutely exploded in the regular season’s second half.

While it won’t be easy, I like the Los Angeles Angels to overcome their postseason demons against Boston and win this series after going the distance.