Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros: MLB Picks & Predictions

Written April 17, 2009 by Jordan Haimowitz

reds-astros-preview-pick-041709 There’s nothing like sitting back, popping open a cold one and going two for two on the night. Doc Halladay was his usual dominating self, Liriano pitched a bit better then expected but as I clearly stated in yesterdays article, the Jays are for real. They have sound bats and tons of balance. The 7th inning explosion solidified the OVER 7 runs as the Jays cruised to a 9-2 victory. Who’s ready to cash in tonight, I sure am. I hope you folks are too.

Documented MLB Record

16-7 OVERALL

5-3 BEST BETS

The Reds have started the 2009 season 4-4. While their record shows a .500 performance so far, they have looked anything but that in a negative way. This team is virtually guaranteed to make at least an error per game, they have a very unbalanced lineup. The one strength of this Reds team is their rotation. Aaron Harang has pitched nicely to start the season, Bronson Arroyo is 2-0 in his first two starts and Edinson Volquez can only go up as the season goes on (he has been dreadful). Tonight’s starter for the Reds is one of the best young arms in the game. Johnny Cueto is a promising pitcher as he gained his first full season of experience last year. Cueto went 0-3 in 4 starts against Houston last year with a 7.84 ERA. However, in his first start this year he went 6 innings allowing four runs but settled down as the game went on. The Astros have averaged under three runs per game to start the season, expect Cueto to pitch very well tonight. While the pitching is what Cinci is going to lean on, they have a nice core of four hitters as well. Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Edwin Encarnacion and one of baseballs best young hitters, Joey Votto are all dangerous hitters with power. The Reds will need lead off man Willy Taveras to get on and cause havoc on the base paths, if he does not reach base, it won’t give the middle of the order enough chances to get runs home as 3 runs may win tonight’s game. Friday’s MLB lines show the Astros at -145 against the Reds and the Over/Under set at 8 runs.

The Houston Astros are 3-9 to start this season. They have won their last two games and must pick up their offense which has been putrid as stated above averaging 2.9 runs per game. Carlos Lee has been invisible and Miguel while averaging .333 to start the year has no home runs and not a single RBI. Lance Berkman has started slow averaging .214 with a single home run and two RBIs. Hunter Pence has been their only consistent player over the first nine games. Tonight, they send ace Roy Oswalt to the mound. After pitching deep into the WBC, Oswalt like many of the players that competed have started off very slow. He has gone 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA. Roy has allowed 16 hits in only 13 innings of work. Tonight, he will right the ship and start his season for real. When Oswalt sees the Reds his eyes light up like a six year old boy on Christmas morning. Last season he went 4-0 in four starts against Cinci posting a 2.52 ERA. He allowed under a hit per inning as well. Now, all those stats and most of the tell tale signs point in the direction of the Astros today as they are currently -150. The Over/Under sits at 8 runs. Hmm, lets see now, Both teams have sub par lineups overall and Oswalt has owned the Reds. Cueto has struggled against Houston but tonight it he will not. The Astros have been swinging cold bats. The notes are below.

Haimo’s Hot Notes: The Reds have not had much success in their head to head meeting with Houston dating back over the past decade. Cinci is 21-48 in their last 69 meetings against the Astros. Houston is 22-4 in their last 26 games against the Reds when Oswalt takes the mound. Houston is also 16-5 in their last 21 games when they are the favorite. None of these trends make me excited though as how can you really judge a team fully with a trend dating more then two years back? I also don’t put to much stock into their dominance with Roy on the mound as if you check the box scores it is the bullpen that blows some of those games. Here is what caught my eye, The UNDER is 16-5 in Houston over the last 21 games on a Friday and the UNDER is 9-3 in Houston over the past 12 games overall. The UNDER 8 runs tonight is a premium play, AKA, BEST BET. Both teams have struggled with the bats, that will continue tonight.

Final Score Prediction: Reds 3 Astros 2 (ESTIMATE ONLY, Registered pick below)

Jordan’s Pick: Reds/Astros UNDER 8 Runs (BEST BET)

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